4 ms·

I'm with you, I also feel too young to know if this is how it has always been or not. We are in the longest period of growth for some time, and the aforemention

I'm with you, I also feel too young to know if this is how it has always been or not. We are in the longest period of growth for some time, and the aforementioned temper tantrum, so it does seem like we are due for a recession, but it is hard not to tune the noise out.

z2 7y ago
I'm with you on the 'too young to know from experience' boat, though there are groups that have been trying to measure the probability of recession through macro indicators across consumption, production, and employment. https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/cfnai/index https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/cfnai/index From speculation, while there are tons of factors that may be giving this business cycle legs, I think one that's not spoken of enough is that many business may be a bit less cyclical today. Thanks to the cloud, companies can scale up and down on a whim rather than slowly build up an excess of hardware and staff to maintain them. Even industrial companies like rail car manufacturers have gotten smarter by leasing factories on short term and using temporary labor.
- shanusmagnus 7y ago
  This is a great point -- how are cycles different as capital costs plummet, the velocity of information approaches infinity, saleable goods de-materialize, labor pools globalize, and addressable markets approach all the people on earth? From my non-expert view, most of macro econ is practically religion anyways, and their predictions are basically non-falsifiable. Even so, I'm sure some informed folks have been thinking about these very issues, I just have no idea who. Would love any pointers.
astazangasta 7y ago
I'm 39, which might make me old enough to have a perspective. 2008 was a unique, terrifying event. A certain amount of trigger happiness from market watchers is expected. But also, 2008 plus 2001 and maybe 1987 also marks a return to the above "business cycle", previously suppressed by a half century of Keynesianism. Now we can reliably expect capitalists to shit the bed every ten years before we have to rein them in and start over.

z2 7y ago

I'm with you on the 'too young to know from experience' boat, though there are groups that have been trying to measure the probability of recession through macro indicators across consumption, production, and employment. https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/cfnai/index https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/cfnai/index From speculation, while there are tons of factors that may be giving this business cycle legs, I think one that's not spoken of enough is that many business may be a bit less cyclical today. Thanks to the cloud, companies can scale up and down on a whim rather than slowly build up an excess of hardware and staff to maintain them. Even industrial companies like rail car manufacturers have gotten smarter by leasing factories on short term and using temporary labor.

shanusmagnus 7y ago
This is a great point -- how are cycles different as capital costs plummet, the velocity of information approaches infinity, saleable goods de-materialize, labor pools globalize, and addressable markets approach all the people on earth? From my non-expert view, most of macro econ is practically religion anyways, and their predictions are basically non-falsifiable. Even so, I'm sure some informed folks have been thinking about these very issues, I just have no idea who. Would love any pointers.

astazangasta 7y ago

I'm 39, which might make me old enough to have a perspective. 2008 was a unique, terrifying event. A certain amount of trigger happiness from market watchers is expected. But also, 2008 plus 2001 and maybe 1987 also marks a return to the above "business cycle", previously suppressed by a half century of Keynesianism. Now we can reliably expect capitalists to shit the bed every ten years before we have to rein them in and start over.