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I tend to agree. Here's my opinionated point of view: The reason governments get away with printing too much money is the negative effects are subtle. Under
by rkagerer 7y ago
I tend to agree. Here's my opinionated point of view: The reason governments get away with printing too much money is the negative effects are subtle.
Under negative interest rates, people are going to see their bank account balance get smaller periodically. It doesn't matter if their purchasing power is identical to what it would be under a stable balance in a period of inflation. Yes, it would spur some more spending, but I think the cognitive impact of seeing your bank account bleed money will drive a behavioral shift away from traditional currencies to alternative stores of wealth. e.g. precious metals, crypto, real estate, etc.
In other words, the farther you ratchet the wrench, the less effective it will be. I would think after a point, nobody wants your e-cash, and people just continue to use cash among themselves - indifferent to your imposed exchange rate - with secondary markets for wealth storage popping up.
The article didn't really explore whether jurisdictions that introduced NIRP observed an uptick in "black market" currencies or untraditional stores of wealth.
- gridlockd 7y ago> Yes, it would spur some more spending, but I think the cognitive impact of seeing your bank account bleed money will drive a behavioral shift away from traditional currencies to alternative stores of wealth. e.g. precious metals, crypto, real estate, etc. If people end up buying more stock or real estate as a result of lower interest rates, that's "mission accomplished" from a policy point of view. That counts as economic stimulus. If people end up buying gold to fight inflation, they can just ban owning it (again). The same goes for crypto.