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Bitcoin has an inflation rate of 4% at the moment, dropping to 2% at the next halving in 2020. Similarly, gold has a vault storage cost of up to 1%, and a mini

Bitcoin has an inflation rate of 4% at the moment, dropping to 2% at the next halving in 2020. Similarly, gold has a vault storage cost of up to 1%, and a mining inflation rate of about 2% (3 kt/yr on a total stock of ~150 kt), more if you just count tradable coins and bullion, without including jewelry. I would also expect a cash warehouse to cost ~1% for storage, security and insurance. Bank charges, such as ATM fees, can take the spread and transaction cost for cash up to 1%. So NIRP can easily go to -1%, and maybe even -2% before the alternatives make sense. However, I would expect a speculative rise in price for BTC and gold in the initial stages of a globally coordinated policy of NIRP and a War on Cash.

chewz 7y ago
This bitcoin/gold fantasy is cute but most people choose real estate. For millenia the only store of value with positive long term return wasn't gold but landholding (with it's terrible side effects like unpredictability of returns, correlation with population growth and the need to tend to the land). I guess real estate is modern version of landholding. It seems like XIX/XX century which made the landholding class bancrupt due to emergence of bonds, rents and industrial investment were just a short term abberation.
- fastball 7y ago
  It's a lot easier to buy bitcoin than property.
- mikhailfranco 7y ago
  You may be correct, but rent-seeking is neither just nor fair. Some might argue that gold and BTC are easier to hide from scavenging authoritarian authorities - don't worry, they will all be authoritarian and scavenging soon. The US has confiscated gold within living memory. The US taxes everything earned by its citizens, and forces then to FATCA(T) and F(U)BAR their wealth, ready for the day. Watch out for capital controls. One could say that the "War on Drugs" and the "War on Terror" are actually fake initiatives designed to track individual activities and assets - a "War on Cash" for the purpose of NIRP. In many countries the benefit of property is only true because of the tax treatment, such as tax-exempt mortgage interest relief, including interest-only mortgages which take interest as a business expense (i.e. speculative BTL landlords), and exempting capital gains tax on residential property. It is highly likely that the only tax-exempt capital asset sees speculative demand. The US still has a tax deduction on debts, for private individuals and companies. Obviously debt should not be subsidized! In the UK, the mortgage interest tax relief (MIRAS) was abolished 30 years ago, but only now are they tightening the rules for BTL landlords. However, they have introduced various other subsidies (e.g. Help To Buy) and even an exemption of Inheritance Tax just for property - this is corruption of democracy on behalf of the rent-seekers. It also depends on the planning laws and the demographics. Planning laws are always and everywhere corrupt in favor of existing NIMBY property owners (often including a select group of mafiosi & oligarchs). Many western populations are declining as indigenous fertility rates plunge and the Boomers die off (e.g. Italy, Japan). Only some accommodate immigrants to make up for the loss, and only some of those actually have public acceptance for that immigration (let me guess - globalists, employers and ... property owners).

chewz 7y ago

This bitcoin/gold fantasy is cute but most people choose real estate. For millenia the only store of value with positive long term return wasn't gold but landholding (with it's terrible side effects like unpredictability of returns, correlation with population growth and the need to tend to the land). I guess real estate is modern version of landholding. It seems like XIX/XX century which made the landholding class bancrupt due to emergence of bonds, rents and industrial investment were just a short term abberation.

fastball 7y ago
It's a lot easier to buy bitcoin than property.
mikhailfranco 7y ago
You may be correct, but rent-seeking is neither just nor fair. Some might argue that gold and BTC are easier to hide from scavenging authoritarian authorities - don't worry, they will all be authoritarian and scavenging soon. The US has confiscated gold within living memory. The US taxes everything earned by its citizens, and forces then to FATCA(T) and F(U)BAR their wealth, ready for the day. Watch out for capital controls. One could say that the "War on Drugs" and the "War on Terror" are actually fake initiatives designed to track individual activities and assets - a "War on Cash" for the purpose of NIRP. In many countries the benefit of property is only true because of the tax treatment, such as tax-exempt mortgage interest relief, including interest-only mortgages which take interest as a business expense (i.e. speculative BTL landlords), and exempting capital gains tax on residential property. It is highly likely that the only tax-exempt capital asset sees speculative demand. The US still has a tax deduction on debts, for private individuals and companies. Obviously debt should not be subsidized! In the UK, the mortgage interest tax relief (MIRAS) was abolished 30 years ago, but only now are they tightening the rules for BTL landlords. However, they have introduced various other subsidies (e.g. Help To Buy) and even an exemption of Inheritance Tax just for property - this is corruption of democracy on behalf of the rent-seekers. It also depends on the planning laws and the demographics. Planning laws are always and everywhere corrupt in favor of existing NIMBY property owners (often including a select group of mafiosi & oligarchs). Many western populations are declining as indigenous fertility rates plunge and the Boomers die off (e.g. Italy, Japan). Only some accommodate immigrants to make up for the loss, and only some of those actually have public acceptance for that immigration (let me guess - globalists, employers and ... property owners).