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Another factor to watch as this plays out is that electric cars have the potential of a 50 year useful life. The drive train of some makes is purported to be 50

Another factor to watch as this plays out is that electric cars have the potential of a 50 year useful life. The drive train of some makes is purported to be 500,000 in the current shipping battery technology and advances are expected to take that to 1,000,000 miles on the drive train. Compare that to ICE cars that wear out pretty reliably in the 200,000 - 250,000 range. For a typical US buyer who drives 12,500 miles per year, 1,000,000 means they can drive the car for 80 years. They could skip buying the next 4 cars.

ghostcluster 7y ago
The problem with this is that the most expensive component of electric cars: the batteries, have a ridiculously short lifespan, and they become less and less powerful with every recharge
- acdha 7y ago
  Are cars really built to make them impossible to replace? I had been under the impression that multiple companies were working on the replace & reclaim model.
- Brakenshire 7y ago
  Old electric cars that had to push the envelope of the usage margins of their batteries were bad, but Tesla batteries show minimal degradation on average. If you stay within safety margins and within temperature ranges batteries go on for a long time. The higher the range of the battery, the more luxury you have to stay within a safety margin, and proper thermal management is becoming standard even at the lower end of the market.
- Alex3917 7y ago
  The lifespan of car batteries is 15 - 20 years, and they only cost a few thousand bucks to replace.
  - Gibbon1 7y ago
    The cost of replacing Prius batteries was a big concern ten years ago. Seems less of a concern today. As in no one talks about ti anymore. Probably because it takes a mechanic half an afternoon to do. And the cost of the batteries has come down. With the new generation of electric cars the cost of replacing the battery isn't what it would cost today, but what it will cost in 15 years. Probably will be reasonably cheap.
    - Alex3917 7y ago
      > The cost of replacing Prius batteries was a big concern ten years ago. It was never really an issue in practice, because (iirc) they had a 10 year warranty but if they failed on year 11 or 12 then Toyota would still usually just replace them for free anyway. And for the last several years you've been able to just get individual cells replaced rather than the entire battery, so it's no longer expensive to begin with.
      - Gibbon1 7y ago
        I think Hyundai warrants hybrid batteries for the life of the car. California considers batteries to be part of the emissions control system. So has a longer warranty. Actual experience seems to show that hybrid and electric car batteries are lasting longer than expected. Except for the Leaf with it's crummy thermal management.
- 11thEarlOfMar 7y ago
  A group of owners in the Netherlands have been tracking their electric cars and found that after 160,000 miles, the degradation is at only 10% [0]. The trend lines forecast the life span to over 400,000 miles. The CEO of the maker of those cars claims (unsubstantiated at this time) that his company's battery technology will be capable of 1,000,000 miles[1]. TBD, but if true, changes the game for the auto industry in an additional vector. [0] https://electrek.co/2018/04/14/tesla-battery-degradation-data/ https://electrek.co/2018/04/14/tesla-battery-degradation-dat... [1] https://electrek.co/2019/04/23/tesla-battery-million-miles-elon-musk/ https://electrek.co/2019/04/23/tesla-battery-million-miles-e...
- xbmcuser 7y ago
  Battery costs are falling at 10-15% every 2 years and with the battery tech improving with more battery users setting up recycling plants for these will start making economic sense.10 years from now replacing the battery would be trivial and also cheap.
- jryb 7y ago
  Are you assuming that cell phone batteries and car batteries are the same? Empirical data shows that the engineering tradeoffs made for car batteries leave them with incredibly long lifespans (at least for Tesla or Nissan Leafs).
mschuster91 7y ago
> Another factor to watch as this plays out is that electric cars have the potential of a 50 year useful life. That's the drive train, but the interior is a different thing. As modern cars are essentially computers on wheels, their UX will feel outdated and sluggish after five years tops (for what it's worth, even current top of the line cars have serious problems there), stuff like the n-th iteration of CarPlay or whatever wasn't updated for ages, navigation systems don't have upates any more... and that's only the electronic interior. The "real life" interior aka dashboard plastics, veneers, seats, ... will be of exactly the same durability as with current ICE cars, which means after 10 years of regular usage the car is for all intents and purposes to be considered a beater. In addition, spare parts are going to be a major issue. While the aftermarket is decent in supplying parts for common cars (you can still get original parts for VW vans), I wouldn't be so sure about "non-common" cars. Tesla doesn't even manage to supply their own garages with parts to fix customer vehicles at the moment. All of this has to be considered when thinking about "useful life".
- Brakenshire 7y ago
  There has been enormous progress on the longevity of interiors, I remember cars that started disintegrating the moment they left the factory. I imagine if the drivetrain lasted longer, interiors could be engineered to fit. The issue is more whether longer lasting, more expensive cars would be profitable. It may be that rideshare apps and carshare schemes, and other business model that rely on high utilisation could actually move the needle on that. It would be good for the environment if so.
  - mschuster91 7y ago
    > I imagine if the drivetrain lasted longer, interiors could be engineered to fit. I doubt it is possible to get it to more than 15 years. People do all kinds of stuff with and in their cars, especially if there are kids and/or pets involved. Vomit, feces, spilled food/drinks, cigarette smoke, scratches and dents from transported stuff, animal claws, the list of things that can damage a car is pretty much endless.
  - Gibbon1 7y ago
gandalfian 7y ago
50 years? It's replacing the suspension parts and rust that writes off 15 year old cars as uneconomic repairs. I don't see that being electric car changes that.
hedora 7y ago
I’ve had three cars fall apart. None had a serious problem with the drive train. Having said that, electric cars are simple, so maybe there will be a luxury “100 year car” brand that removes all the planned obsolescence and provides repair parts / service indefinitely.

ghostcluster 7y ago

The problem with this is that the most expensive component of electric cars: the batteries, have a ridiculously short lifespan, and they become less and less powerful with every recharge

acdha 7y ago
Are cars really built to make them impossible to replace? I had been under the impression that multiple companies were working on the replace & reclaim model.
Brakenshire 7y ago
Old electric cars that had to push the envelope of the usage margins of their batteries were bad, but Tesla batteries show minimal degradation on average. If you stay within safety margins and within temperature ranges batteries go on for a long time. The higher the range of the battery, the more luxury you have to stay within a safety margin, and proper thermal management is becoming standard even at the lower end of the market.
Alex3917 7y ago
The lifespan of car batteries is 15 - 20 years, and they only cost a few thousand bucks to replace.
- Gibbon1 7y ago
  The cost of replacing Prius batteries was a big concern ten years ago. Seems less of a concern today. As in no one talks about ti anymore. Probably because it takes a mechanic half an afternoon to do. And the cost of the batteries has come down. With the new generation of electric cars the cost of replacing the battery isn't what it would cost today, but what it will cost in 15 years. Probably will be reasonably cheap.
  - Alex3917 7y ago
    > The cost of replacing Prius batteries was a big concern ten years ago. It was never really an issue in practice, because (iirc) they had a 10 year warranty but if they failed on year 11 or 12 then Toyota would still usually just replace them for free anyway. And for the last several years you've been able to just get individual cells replaced rather than the entire battery, so it's no longer expensive to begin with.
    - Gibbon1 7y ago
      I think Hyundai warrants hybrid batteries for the life of the car. California considers batteries to be part of the emissions control system. So has a longer warranty. Actual experience seems to show that hybrid and electric car batteries are lasting longer than expected. Except for the Leaf with it's crummy thermal management.
11thEarlOfMar 7y ago
A group of owners in the Netherlands have been tracking their electric cars and found that after 160,000 miles, the degradation is at only 10% [0]. The trend lines forecast the life span to over 400,000 miles. The CEO of the maker of those cars claims (unsubstantiated at this time) that his company's battery technology will be capable of 1,000,000 miles[1]. TBD, but if true, changes the game for the auto industry in an additional vector. [0] https://electrek.co/2018/04/14/tesla-battery-degradation-data/ https://electrek.co/2018/04/14/tesla-battery-degradation-dat... [1] https://electrek.co/2019/04/23/tesla-battery-million-miles-elon-musk/ https://electrek.co/2019/04/23/tesla-battery-million-miles-e...
xbmcuser 7y ago
Battery costs are falling at 10-15% every 2 years and with the battery tech improving with more battery users setting up recycling plants for these will start making economic sense.10 years from now replacing the battery would be trivial and also cheap.
jryb 7y ago
Are you assuming that cell phone batteries and car batteries are the same? Empirical data shows that the engineering tradeoffs made for car batteries leave them with incredibly long lifespans (at least for Tesla or Nissan Leafs).

mschuster91 7y ago

> Another factor to watch as this plays out is that electric cars have the potential of a 50 year useful life. That's the drive train, but the interior is a different thing. As modern cars are essentially computers on wheels, their UX will feel outdated and sluggish after five years tops (for what it's worth, even current top of the line cars have serious problems there), stuff like the n-th iteration of CarPlay or whatever wasn't updated for ages, navigation systems don't have upates any more... and that's only the electronic interior. The "real life" interior aka dashboard plastics, veneers, seats, ... will be of exactly the same durability as with current ICE cars, which means after 10 years of regular usage the car is for all intents and purposes to be considered a beater. In addition, spare parts are going to be a major issue. While the aftermarket is decent in supplying parts for common cars (you can still get original parts for VW vans), I wouldn't be so sure about "non-common" cars. Tesla doesn't even manage to supply their own garages with parts to fix customer vehicles at the moment. All of this has to be considered when thinking about "useful life".

Brakenshire 7y ago
There has been enormous progress on the longevity of interiors, I remember cars that started disintegrating the moment they left the factory. I imagine if the drivetrain lasted longer, interiors could be engineered to fit. The issue is more whether longer lasting, more expensive cars would be profitable. It may be that rideshare apps and carshare schemes, and other business model that rely on high utilisation could actually move the needle on that. It would be good for the environment if so.
- mschuster91 7y ago
  > I imagine if the drivetrain lasted longer, interiors could be engineered to fit. I doubt it is possible to get it to more than 15 years. People do all kinds of stuff with and in their cars, especially if there are kids and/or pets involved. Vomit, feces, spilled food/drinks, cigarette smoke, scratches and dents from transported stuff, animal claws, the list of things that can damage a car is pretty much endless.
- Gibbon1 7y ago

gandalfian 7y ago

50 years? It's replacing the suspension parts and rust that writes off 15 year old cars as uneconomic repairs. I don't see that being electric car changes that.

hedora 7y ago

I’ve had three cars fall apart. None had a serious problem with the drive train. Having said that, electric cars are simple, so maybe there will be a luxury “100 year car” brand that removes all the planned obsolescence and provides repair parts / service indefinitely.