5 ms·
It looks like a 10Y-3M inversion has predicted each of the last 3 recessions by about a year with no false positives in the last 35 year. https://fred.stlouisf
by asmithmd1 7y ago
It looks like a 10Y-3M inversion has predicted each of the last 3 recessions by about a year with no false positives in the last 35 year.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=o4ro https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=o4ro
Of course maybe this time is different...
- mrep 7y agoAssuming you use 0 as your magic ball number. Move the magic ball number up just a tiny bit to 0.07 and you would have had a false positive in september 1998. You could also move it down to -0.32 and you would still a 100% success rate, albeit with a sample size of 3...