3 ms·

the article specifically points out the period of 2002 to 2014. You've listed 3 from 2015, but the article didn't sound too fixated on the year 2014 so I think

the article specifically points out the period of 2002 to 2014. You've listed 3 from 2015, but the article didn't sound too fixated on the year 2014 so I think some wiggle room should be allowed. But please, I would love to see your list from 2016/2017. That would be very interesting.

askafriend 7y ago
It's easy to choose an arbitrary timescale to fit a viewpoint. The author chose a massive timescale from 2002 to 2014 (presenting it as if that period of activity were simply unremarkable) - and then made a bold, unsubstantiated claim. I'm not going to give the author any more wiggle room, sorry. I listed multiple BILLION dollar opportunities created in the just the past few years during the tail end of that author's range. I think this shows that the author's argument is weak at best and completely unsubstantiated at worst. The ones founded in 2016/2017 haven't had time to mature yet. I suspect we'll see more breakouts hit ~$1B valuations soon enough. But sure I'll give you examples: * Brex was founded in 2017 and is now worth $2B. * Whatever you think of scooter companies, Lime and Bird were both founded in 2017, and are now $1B+ companies. * Nuro was founded in 2016 and is a $2.7B+ company.
- hn_throwaway_99 7y ago
  I agree with your overall viewpoint, that the timeframe is pretty arbitrary. And after all, it's kind of a catch 22 to say "It's going to take a lot more effort to become a billion dollar company now" and then in the same breath say "Aha, see, no billion dollar companies from the past 3-4 years." At the same time, I strongly caution interpreting any VC-funding-round-extrapolated-total-valuation as a true valuation.
- jjeaff 7y ago
  VC valuations are based on what they estimate they can pump a company up to before dumping it on the open market. Not on the value or long term viability of the company.

askafriend 7y ago

It's easy to choose an arbitrary timescale to fit a viewpoint. The author chose a massive timescale from 2002 to 2014 (presenting it as if that period of activity were simply unremarkable) - and then made a bold, unsubstantiated claim. I'm not going to give the author any more wiggle room, sorry. I listed multiple BILLION dollar opportunities created in the just the past few years during the tail end of that author's range. I think this shows that the author's argument is weak at best and completely unsubstantiated at worst. The ones founded in 2016/2017 haven't had time to mature yet. I suspect we'll see more breakouts hit ~$1B valuations soon enough. But sure I'll give you examples: * Brex was founded in 2017 and is now worth $2B. * Whatever you think of scooter companies, Lime and Bird were both founded in 2017, and are now $1B+ companies. * Nuro was founded in 2016 and is a $2.7B+ company.

hn_throwaway_99 7y ago
I agree with your overall viewpoint, that the timeframe is pretty arbitrary. And after all, it's kind of a catch 22 to say "It's going to take a lot more effort to become a billion dollar company now" and then in the same breath say "Aha, see, no billion dollar companies from the past 3-4 years." At the same time, I strongly caution interpreting any VC-funding-round-extrapolated-total-valuation as a true valuation.
jjeaff 7y ago
VC valuations are based on what they estimate they can pump a company up to before dumping it on the open market. Not on the value or long term viability of the company.