> the interconnected nature of the global economy will likely ensure that there will be a resolution to this... I hope so. Rational actor models worry me more

> the interconnected nature of the global economy will likely ensure that there will be a resolution to this... I hope so. Rational actor models worry me more in politics and foreign policy than in economics. Reasons this might just keep getting worse: 1) Diffusion of responsibility: Those who see the trade war as dangerous assume someone else will influence events to avoid a greater crisis before we get there. 2) Frog boiling: People are setting expectations based on the current week and ignoring cumulative damage. 3) Self-doubt: Those who could use leverage in DC question whether traditional tools would be effective in the current political environment 4) Policy disagreements: Many powerful policy advisors believe the trade war will be good in the long run. Some are convinced that it is good in the short run. 5) Commitment devices: There are moments where both sides will "burn their ships" and be unable to move towards compromise without a show of contrition from the other side. 6) Madman theories: Leaders can justify irrationality in the short term by appealing to the long term benefits. 7) Lack of understanding: Each side can underestimate the others' domestic political forces that prevent quick compromise I still hope you're right. Things could get worse rapidly in ways that are too staggering to wrap my head around, but it's also hard for me to imagine off-ramps based on all the personalities (and systems of advisors) involved on both sides.