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Ultimately we need to get off this rock as a species; the Earth is fairly overdue (statistically as I understand it) for a major asteroid hit. We seem to have
by cr0sh 7y ago
Ultimately we need to get off this rock as a species; the Earth is fairly overdue (statistically as I understand it) for a major asteroid hit.
We seem to have this hubris that we'll be able to "detect and deflect" - both of which are unlikely with our current technology for any size dire enough to care about.
We don't even have the "detect" part in place - not in the way it needs to be. As more than a few recent incidents have shown, we're currently blind and a sitting duck, so to speak.
Even a relatively small strike, depending on where it landed, could potentially trigger a nuclear launch depending on the political climate and such at the time. We need better eyes, if for nothing else than the avert that kind of "misunderstanding" which could lead to an existential crisis.
- cycrutchfield 7y ago>the Earth is fairly overdue (statistically as I understand it) for a major asteroid hit. What does this mean? Wouldn't the distribution of asteroid hits be essentially memoryless? That is, the fact that we have not had one in recent history has almost zero bearing on the probability of one happening in the future.
- idlewords 7y agoOh, the asteroids, they remember. They remember and they do not forgive!
- Baeocystin 7y agoMaybe, maybe not. There could be potential ultra-long-period impactors that share a similar origin, and therefore a similar period. Or perhaps crossing the galactic orbital plane changes the odds. The question of periodicity of mass extinctions (and what, if any, causes there are) is a valid line of inquiry, although there are no clear smoking guns. https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2015/11/the-next-mass-extinction/413884/ https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2015/11/the-next...
- JKCalhoun 7y agoI suppose like flipping a number of heads in a row to get a coin "ready for tails".
- MRD85 7y agoIf you're interested, the terminology is "independent" events, and you're correct.
- cycrutchfield 7y agoIndependence is not exactly the same as memoryless. In this case I was referring to something like a Poisson process.
- remarkEon 7y ago>the Earth is fairly overdue (statistically as I understand it) for a major asteroid hit. I thought that as the solar system ages these sorts of event become much less frequent, as orbits of these bodies decay and huge gravity wells (like Jupiter) suck them up?
- jdavis703 7y agoWhy would it trigger a nuclear strike? Do some countries have seismic detectors that will auto-launch nukes or something?
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- mrhappyunhappy 7y agoLet’s see, an odd chance of extinction in several million years due to an asteroid or certain extinction within several hundred years due to a climate catastrophe, which one should we prioritize? Hmmm.
- inawarminister 7y agoIf there are humans in space habitats and (better) on transit with colonisation ships to other star systems, the climate of our homeworld doesn't really matter for the survival of the species. Still, it's much better to solve both. Especially since space technology is still in its infancy. Abandoning either would be a folly.