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Resilient as in despite 10 years of continuous doomsday prognostications, Bitcoin continues to be traded and used around the world. And 1 BTC, this thing that d

by cal5k 7y ago

Resilient as in despite 10 years of continuous doomsday prognostications, Bitcoin continues to be traded and used around the world. And 1 BTC, this thing that didn't exist 10 years ago, is now worth $8,422.40 USD. As for utility: I've used it to pay contractors in Europe, for example, without having to figure out which money transmittal service is going to rip me off the least. Tons of expats living in North America and Europe use it to send money back to family in their home countries. People use it to hedge against runaway inflation caused by poor monetary policy. It could all fall apart in a few years, sure, but it's damn interesting. Being cynical just means if you're right you get to gloat about it, but if you're wrong you're missing something that could be really important.

Frondo 7y ago
The problem I think a lot of people have with Bitcoin, at least that ends up producing articles like this, is that there's always a tremendous amount of goalpost-shifting in the Bitcoin/adjacent community. At times it's been talked about as a replacement for cash in the sense of using it for lots of low-value transactions (it won't work), as a value store (it fluctuates a LOT for that), for sending money across borders (absolutely dwarfed by Western Union), for replacing Paypal/Venmo/Google Wallet/any other electronic payment system (absolutely dwarfed any of those), and so on. It's not dead, of course, but the Bitcoin community has made a LOT of strong claims about widespread public adoption, yet still remains very much in the hands of speculators and hobbyists. That's what, I think, a lot of the objections come from. Bitcoin's like the Segway in a sense; did it change the world? in some small way, yes. Are we building cities (or large-scale financial infrastructures) around it? Well, show me.
- cal5k 7y ago
  Well, I think nobody knows exactly what it is yet. It's an emerging technology, so even if there's a great deal of utility it's not surprising that predictions will be off the mark/downright wrong, and that opportunities will be missed that eventually seem obvious in retrospect. And there is no cohesive "community" that's making predictions and measuring against them. It's just people speculating out loud, and then other people writing about the speculation. It's a bit unusual because it started out as a cool technological curiosity vs. a product with a defined product/market fit. Sort of like desktop computing in the 70s.
  - Balgair 7y ago
    > Resilient as in despite 10 years of continuous doomsday prognostications, > It's an emerging technology, What are the timelines like here? If 10 years is too short to suss out what BTC is going to be useful for, will another 10 years help? Is this a 100 year long thing then?
    - cal5k 7y ago
      It's useful now. It could be more useful in the future, or it could be supplanted by something else. All I'm saying is that big changes don't happen as fast as people expect, and it's hard to determine where they'll go while they're happening. See: the internet, cell phones, desktop computers, space travel, etc.
      - johnpowell 7y ago
        Internet was expensive when it came out. Remember when it used to be pay by the hour and tied up your landline? I had internet through the University and had to kick people out of my apartment because they would sit at my computer forever. Everyone I knew in high school wanted a cellphone but couldn't afford it. Same with desktop computers. Same with space travel. Everyone wanted that that stuff but it was expensive. Bitcoin isn't hard or expensive to get. But still nobody wants it.
        cal5k 7y ago
        Bitcoin trades on open markets. If it was worth nothing and nobody wanted it, it would trade at $0. Instead, 1 Bitcoin is currently trading at $8,400 USD. Tens of billions of dollars are tied up in it, and it's impossible to trivially create new Bitcoin. So... pretty much exactly the opposite of what you're arguing.
- WalterSear 7y ago
  It's great for laundering money. It's where a huge portion of it's value has come from :(

by cal5k 7y ago

Frondo 7y ago

The problem I think a lot of people have with Bitcoin, at least that ends up producing articles like this, is that there's always a tremendous amount of goalpost-shifting in the Bitcoin/adjacent community. At times it's been talked about as a replacement for cash in the sense of using it for lots of low-value transactions (it won't work), as a value store (it fluctuates a LOT for that), for sending money across borders (absolutely dwarfed by Western Union), for replacing Paypal/Venmo/Google Wallet/any other electronic payment system (absolutely dwarfed any of those), and so on. It's not dead, of course, but the Bitcoin community has made a LOT of strong claims about widespread public adoption, yet still remains very much in the hands of speculators and hobbyists. That's what, I think, a lot of the objections come from. Bitcoin's like the Segway in a sense; did it change the world? in some small way, yes. Are we building cities (or large-scale financial infrastructures) around it? Well, show me.

cal5k 7y ago
Well, I think nobody knows exactly what it is yet. It's an emerging technology, so even if there's a great deal of utility it's not surprising that predictions will be off the mark/downright wrong, and that opportunities will be missed that eventually seem obvious in retrospect. And there is no cohesive "community" that's making predictions and measuring against them. It's just people speculating out loud, and then other people writing about the speculation. It's a bit unusual because it started out as a cool technological curiosity vs. a product with a defined product/market fit. Sort of like desktop computing in the 70s.
- Balgair 7y ago
  > Resilient as in despite 10 years of continuous doomsday prognostications, > It's an emerging technology, What are the timelines like here? If 10 years is too short to suss out what BTC is going to be useful for, will another 10 years help? Is this a 100 year long thing then?
  - cal5k 7y ago
    It's useful now. It could be more useful in the future, or it could be supplanted by something else. All I'm saying is that big changes don't happen as fast as people expect, and it's hard to determine where they'll go while they're happening. See: the internet, cell phones, desktop computers, space travel, etc.
    - johnpowell 7y ago
      Internet was expensive when it came out. Remember when it used to be pay by the hour and tied up your landline? I had internet through the University and had to kick people out of my apartment because they would sit at my computer forever. Everyone I knew in high school wanted a cellphone but couldn't afford it. Same with desktop computers. Same with space travel. Everyone wanted that that stuff but it was expensive. Bitcoin isn't hard or expensive to get. But still nobody wants it.
      - cal5k 7y ago
        Bitcoin trades on open markets. If it was worth nothing and nobody wanted it, it would trade at $0. Instead, 1 Bitcoin is currently trading at $8,400 USD. Tens of billions of dollars are tied up in it, and it's impossible to trivially create new Bitcoin. So... pretty much exactly the opposite of what you're arguing.
WalterSear 7y ago
It's great for laundering money. It's where a huge portion of it's value has come from :(