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If a terrorist acquires a nuclear weapon and detonates it in NYC, what happens to the death rate? The point about tail risk is that probabilities that seem rar
by base698 7y ago
If a terrorist acquires a nuclear weapon and detonates it in NYC, what happens to the death rate? The point about tail risk is that probabilities that seem rare, aren't as rare and defined as you'd hope.
See: Black Swan/Antifragile
- Ygg2 7y agoIf terrorist detonates a nuke, then it's around a million by some estimates [1], so even then there is a relatively low ceiling. But creating and operating a bomb requires expertise, that all terrorist lack. [1]http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/06/what-a-nuclear-attack-in-new-york-would-look-like.html http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/06/what-a-nuclear-attack...
- harimau777 7y agoA gun style nuclear bomb isn't that complicated. If terrorists were able to get enriched uranium, then they could probably make one. If there were no counter-terrorism efforts at all, then there is a reasonable chance that they would be able to get enriched uranium.
- boomboomsubban 7y agoOver a ten year period, terrorism still wouldn't justify it's ~35% share of the press stories. As it is that rare.
- 50656E6973 7y agoAbout 1.2 million americans die from heart disease or cancer each year. There are about 8.6 million people living in NYC. NYC would have to be nuked and fully repopulated about once every 7 years to match the death rates of heart disease and cancer.