3 ms·

> We're already at a point where the birth rate worldwide is just at replacement level We're at around 2.5 according to: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_f

by jwatt 7y ago

> We're already at a point where the birth rate worldwide is just at replacement level We're at around 2.5 according to: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate And there are lots of countries in Africa that have high rates: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_d...

beat 7y ago
Yes. Desperately poor ones. And most of them are improving, rapidly. The process takes a couple of generations, once it gets rolling. Take Egypt, for example. Its birth rate is currently 3.26, which is "high". but That's down from 6.72 in 1960 and 5.60 in 1980. Over the same period, life expectancy has risen from 48 to 71. This means population growth hasn't changed that much, from 2.8% to 1.9% - but as birth rate continues to fall and life expectancy levels out, it'll go negative, just like it did in the US and Europe, which would have negative growth, were it not for immigration. Think this nations are just doomed and can't get any better? In the mid-19th century, places like Sweden and England had birthrates above 6, and 90% illiteracy rates. They got better. The "third world" is dropping its birth rates and increasing its economic standing far, far faster than Europe did. edit: Over the same-ish 1965-present period, Egypt's per capita GDP grew from $165 to a recent peak of $3548, about a 20x improvement (this is constant dollars). So wealth goes up, life expectancy goes up, birth rate goes down. These things are linked in virtually every nation.
- jwatt 7y ago
  > Think this nations are just doomed and can't get any better? I'm not sure if that question was directed at me or to all readers, but if directed to me, no, I certainly don't think that. > So wealth goes up, life expectancy goes up, birth rate goes down. Indeed, there is a strong and important link there.
  - beat 7y ago
    Belief that the poor nations of Africa and Asia and the rest of the "third world" are simply doomed to poverty and suffering is widespread, even among educated and sensitive people. That's why I always make a point of showing that, a century from now, a place like Egypt today could be the Sweden of tomorrow.

by jwatt 7y ago

beat 7y ago

Yes. Desperately poor ones. And most of them are improving, rapidly. The process takes a couple of generations, once it gets rolling. Take Egypt, for example. Its birth rate is currently 3.26, which is "high". but That's down from 6.72 in 1960 and 5.60 in 1980. Over the same period, life expectancy has risen from 48 to 71. This means population growth hasn't changed that much, from 2.8% to 1.9% - but as birth rate continues to fall and life expectancy levels out, it'll go negative, just like it did in the US and Europe, which would have negative growth, were it not for immigration. Think this nations are just doomed and can't get any better? In the mid-19th century, places like Sweden and England had birthrates above 6, and 90% illiteracy rates. They got better. The "third world" is dropping its birth rates and increasing its economic standing far, far faster than Europe did. edit: Over the same-ish 1965-present period, Egypt's per capita GDP grew from $165 to a recent peak of $3548, about a 20x improvement (this is constant dollars). So wealth goes up, life expectancy goes up, birth rate goes down. These things are linked in virtually every nation.

jwatt 7y ago
> Think this nations are just doomed and can't get any better? I'm not sure if that question was directed at me or to all readers, but if directed to me, no, I certainly don't think that. > So wealth goes up, life expectancy goes up, birth rate goes down. Indeed, there is a strong and important link there.
- beat 7y ago
  Belief that the poor nations of Africa and Asia and the rest of the "third world" are simply doomed to poverty and suffering is widespread, even among educated and sensitive people. That's why I always make a point of showing that, a century from now, a place like Egypt today could be the Sweden of tomorrow.