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If you're interested in the facts... https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport https://hcai.mit.edu/human-side-of-te

If you're interested in the facts... https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport https://hcai.mit.edu/human-side-of-tesla-autopilot/ https://hcai.mit.edu/human-side-of-tesla-autopilot/

newman8r 7y ago
I'm interested in this stuff, but their "quarterly reports" are just ~3 sentence summaries. Is this the extent of these reports? (maybe I'm missing something). It would be helpful to see a list of the actual incidents they're using to calculate these numbers.
_Codemonkeyism 7y ago
As mentioned several times on HN the comparison Tesla cites here is highly problematic.
- tlb 7y ago
  There are no statistics that aren't problematic. Do you have a different stat in mind you think would be more fair? Such as controlling for city/highway miles?
  - _Codemonkeyism 7y ago
    Probably every stat that isn't on the vendors marketing page.
  - AndrewBissell 7y ago
    Controlling for city/highway miles would be a great start. Then it would also be helpful for Tesla to compare itself against vehicles of a similar fleet age, price range (demographics make a big difference in the likelihood of a crash), and with similar modern safety features such as AEB. Of course, they are famously cagey with all of this data, always preferring instead to point to the "Autopilot miles vs. all miles driven" number. > “It’s obviously a misrepresentation,” said Hemant Bhargava, a UC Davis professor who specializes in technology management. “You’re only in autonomous mode in the best scenarios, so the number of crashes will be lower.” Source: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/studies-dont-support-elon-musks-autopilot-safety-claims https://www.theinformation.com/articles/studies-dont-support...?
duxup 7y ago
I'm not sure I would assume Tesla's POV here is necessarily "the facts" or that their safety site really informs much about the article.
- andrewtbham 7y ago
  Ok I added research from MIT. Tesla has the data about it's fleet. Some guy that thinks he saw someone not paying attention is an anecdote.
- creaghpatr 7y ago
  Are you disputing their data? That's a pretty serious allegation for a publicly traded company.
  - duxup 7y ago
    >Are you disputing their data? That's a pretty serious allegation for a publicly traded company. I'm skeptical considering Tesla's past approach to testing, their problems with the NTSB.
  - brianpgordon 7y ago
    If you take as gospel every public corporation's PR materials, you should get in touch with Herbalife; I'm sure they'd love to sell you on a garage full of overpriced placebos.
mh8h 7y ago
Sure, autopilot does better than the average car on the road. But there are parameters to control for. For example, the average car on the road is 10 years old, it's probably not very well maintained, and on average costs <$20k. You should compare the safety of a Tesla to the safety of a similarly aged, similarly priced, and similarly equipped car, for example one with active safety mechanisms. Plus, IMO the false confidence that Autopilot gives enables dangerous negligent behaviour from the drivers. Want to see the safest car? NHTSA publishes an annual driver fatality report, and there are car models that have never had a fatal crash. See the 2009-2014 XC90 for example.

newman8r 7y ago

I'm interested in this stuff, but their "quarterly reports" are just ~3 sentence summaries. Is this the extent of these reports? (maybe I'm missing something). It would be helpful to see a list of the actual incidents they're using to calculate these numbers.

_Codemonkeyism 7y ago

As mentioned several times on HN the comparison Tesla cites here is highly problematic.

tlb 7y ago
There are no statistics that aren't problematic. Do you have a different stat in mind you think would be more fair? Such as controlling for city/highway miles?
- _Codemonkeyism 7y ago
  Probably every stat that isn't on the vendors marketing page.
- AndrewBissell 7y ago
  Controlling for city/highway miles would be a great start. Then it would also be helpful for Tesla to compare itself against vehicles of a similar fleet age, price range (demographics make a big difference in the likelihood of a crash), and with similar modern safety features such as AEB. Of course, they are famously cagey with all of this data, always preferring instead to point to the "Autopilot miles vs. all miles driven" number. > “It’s obviously a misrepresentation,” said Hemant Bhargava, a UC Davis professor who specializes in technology management. “You’re only in autonomous mode in the best scenarios, so the number of crashes will be lower.” Source: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/studies-dont-support-elon-musks-autopilot-safety-claims https://www.theinformation.com/articles/studies-dont-support...?

duxup 7y ago

I'm not sure I would assume Tesla's POV here is necessarily "the facts" or that their safety site really informs much about the article.

andrewtbham 7y ago
Ok I added research from MIT. Tesla has the data about it's fleet. Some guy that thinks he saw someone not paying attention is an anecdote.
creaghpatr 7y ago
Are you disputing their data? That's a pretty serious allegation for a publicly traded company.
- duxup 7y ago
  >Are you disputing their data? That's a pretty serious allegation for a publicly traded company. I'm skeptical considering Tesla's past approach to testing, their problems with the NTSB.
- brianpgordon 7y ago
  If you take as gospel every public corporation's PR materials, you should get in touch with Herbalife; I'm sure they'd love to sell you on a garage full of overpriced placebos.

mh8h 7y ago

Sure, autopilot does better than the average car on the road. But there are parameters to control for. For example, the average car on the road is 10 years old, it's probably not very well maintained, and on average costs <$20k. You should compare the safety of a Tesla to the safety of a similarly aged, similarly priced, and similarly equipped car, for example one with active safety mechanisms. Plus, IMO the false confidence that Autopilot gives enables dangerous negligent behaviour from the drivers. Want to see the safest car? NHTSA publishes an annual driver fatality report, and there are car models that have never had a fatal crash. See the 2009-2014 XC90 for example.