Some other leading indicators of "formal" recessions [%]: * as others mention, yield curve inversion. e.g: https://financial-charts.effingapp.com/yield-curve h

Some other leading indicators of "formal" recessions [%]: * as others mention, yield curve inversion. e.g: https://financial-charts.effingapp.com/yield-curve https://financial-charts.effingapp.com/yield-curve * unemployment rate climbing after hitting a local minima. e.g. https://financial-charts.effingapp.com/usa-unemployment https://financial-charts.effingapp.com/usa-unemployment Some other indicators that expected long-term stock market returns may be low: * valuation ratios -- in terms of P/B, P/E, CA(P/E), etc, are high [+], compared to historical norms. e.g. https://www.starcapital.de/en/research/stock-market-expectations/ https://www.starcapital.de/en/research/stock-market-expectat... * supply & demand factors, in terms of how much the average investor has allocated to the stock market [@]. e.g. https://financial-charts.effingapp.com/ https://financial-charts.effingapp.com/ [%] periods when recessions occur tend to be formally defined after the fact, by economists looking backwards at historical data. this may not be particularly helpful for anyone trying to time the market before a crash. "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." -- Bohr. [+] some people may push back on this, saying "stocks are priced high relative to what alternatives?" -- if all alternative asset classes are also "overpriced", then maybe that just means there's far too much cash floating about, and not many good investment opportunities remaining. but if all asset prices are "overpriced", then nothing is, cash is just devalued... [@] n.b. the blog post that this indicator is based on is intended as somewhat of a joke, as an example of how it is possible to construct rather arbitrary and misleading indicators that look good --- but it's an interesting read: http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2013/12/the-single-greatest-predictor-of-future-stock-market-returns/ http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2013/12/the-single-gre...