3 ms·

In the current late stage of a cheap debt infused bull market it appears to be more sane to predict a crash and hence discourage people form investing in it alt

In the current late stage of a cheap debt infused bull market it appears to be more sane to predict a crash and hence discourage people form investing in it altogether (or at least be extremely cautious) rather than speculating on where exactly the market top will occur. If you miss the timing of the crash all of these gains will have disappeared anyway. Downturns often happen too fast for normal people to react to in time to save their gains. It's most likely time to buy again directly after a crash or significant pullback has happened and valuations have come down to a more rational level. No one can predict a market under the current circumstances (federal reserves keeping rates artificially low, pumping new funny money into the market over a period of 5-10 years).

scld 7y ago
How is under-target inflation for a decade artificially low rates?
- starbugs 7y ago
  Well, look at where the money has gone. It's now in the stock market and in real estate. Inflation is there, it just didn't trickle down into the CPI basket (yet).
- C1sc0cat 7y ago
  Because it is not normal to have such a low yield on Guilts around 1% for ten year in the UK
mrosett 7y ago
> In the current late stage of a cheap debt infused bull market it appears to be more sane to predict a crash and hence discourage people form investing in it altogether (or at least be extremely cautious) rather than speculating on where exactly the market top will occur. People were making the same argument in 2012.
- starbugs 7y ago
  And they were most likely right in 2012.