3 ms·

Malthusian advocates tend to view the economy as static. One of the most recent surges in that line of thinking was the worlds impending doom at the hands of Pe

by bshipp 7y ago

Malthusian advocates tend to view the economy as static. One of the most recent surges in that line of thinking was the worlds impending doom at the hands of Peak Oil. Every single trendline in the early 2000's showed us running into a supply wall with no possibly salvation. And here we are, not even 20 years later, and America could potentially become a net exporter of oil. economics is hard because supply and demand are incredibly dynamic, and react far quicker than anyone seems to think. That said, a non-Malthusian ending does not mean a happy ending, or even a better world than previously existed. Huge (long overdue, IMHO) investments in the commodity markets in 2006-2009 are going to keep us going for another few decades until another cycle of underinvestment bites us again. However, each time the invisible hand flings money from one pot into another there is uncounted costs in disrupted lives, environmental impacts, and national upheaval. Capitalism is far from perfect, but--at least in terms of resource allocation in dynamic information-starved systems--its the least imperfect solution we've got.

AstralStorm 7y ago
Come on. We haven't tried any other emerging solutions such as global government or full on ochlocracy. Yet always people cousin capitalistm is best we got only because it's the thing we currently have, committing the same mistake of being static, just on the higher level. Not to mention capitalism is an umbrella term with many variants making it a works claim. As if you said "the best we have is cars".
- msla 7y ago
  > Not to mention capitalism is an umbrella term with many variants making it a works claim. That's part of the strength of Capitalism: You can tweak it, modify the regulatory regime, and it's still Capitalism. You don't need a revolution to modify some deep theory in order to improve how you regulate a Capitalist economy, or to adopt some ideas from the Socialist platform, like you would to modify a specific Socialist ideology.
BlueTemplar 7y ago
Dynamic systems researchers "tend to view the economy as static" ?! King Hubbert was laughed at when he predicted in 1956 that USA oil production would peak in a decade or so. It did. http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/1956/1956.pdf http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/1956/1956.pdf In 1998 Campbell & Laherrère predicted "The End of Cheap Oil" before 2010, due to the peak of conventional oil. http://www.oilcrisis.com/campbell/endofcheapoil.pdf http://www.oilcrisis.com/campbell/endofcheapoil.pdf The International Energy Agency called them "pessimists" : http://petrole.blog.lemonde.fr/files/2011/04/weo1998.1302253519.pdf http://petrole.blog.lemonde.fr/files/2011/04/weo1998.1302253... In 1998-1999 the price of an oil barrel fell from $30 to $20. In 2008 it reached $160. These days it fluctuates between $40 and $70. https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart#menu2 https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-cha... In 2010 the same IEA said that conventional oil production had peaked in 2006. https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/weo2010.pdf https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publicatio... And while the USA is fairly close to be a [net exporter of liquid hydrocarbons](https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2018/12/09/no-the-u-s-is-not-a-net-exporter-of-crude-oil/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2018/12/09/no-the-u-s-i...) (not crude oil), the future of tight oil doesn't look good - Laherrere seems to forecast peak tight oil for 2018 : https://aspofrance.files.wordpress.com/2018/03/lahall19march.pdf https://aspofrance.files.wordpress.com/2018/03/lahall19march... (it takes a while to collect the data...) Sure, maybe we'll figure out how to economically extract even less conventional hydrocarbons (like shale oil = kerogen, which you have to "cook" before it can be used), but these will be even more expensive and polluting !

by bshipp 7y ago

AstralStorm 7y ago

Come on. We haven't tried any other emerging solutions such as global government or full on ochlocracy. Yet always people cousin capitalistm is best we got only because it's the thing we currently have, committing the same mistake of being static, just on the higher level. Not to mention capitalism is an umbrella term with many variants making it a works claim. As if you said "the best we have is cars".

msla 7y ago
> Not to mention capitalism is an umbrella term with many variants making it a works claim. That's part of the strength of Capitalism: You can tweak it, modify the regulatory regime, and it's still Capitalism. You don't need a revolution to modify some deep theory in order to improve how you regulate a Capitalist economy, or to adopt some ideas from the Socialist platform, like you would to modify a specific Socialist ideology.

BlueTemplar 7y ago

Dynamic systems researchers "tend to view the economy as static" ?! King Hubbert was laughed at when he predicted in 1956 that USA oil production would peak in a decade or so. It did. http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/1956/1956.pdf http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/1956/1956.pdf In 1998 Campbell & Laherrère predicted "The End of Cheap Oil" before 2010, due to the peak of conventional oil. http://www.oilcrisis.com/campbell/endofcheapoil.pdf http://www.oilcrisis.com/campbell/endofcheapoil.pdf The International Energy Agency called them "pessimists" : http://petrole.blog.lemonde.fr/files/2011/04/weo1998.1302253519.pdf http://petrole.blog.lemonde.fr/files/2011/04/weo1998.1302253... In 1998-1999 the price of an oil barrel fell from $30 to $20. In 2008 it reached $160. These days it fluctuates between $40 and $70. https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart#menu2 https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-cha... In 2010 the same IEA said that conventional oil production had peaked in 2006. https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/weo2010.pdf https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publicatio... And while the USA is fairly close to be a [net exporter of liquid hydrocarbons](https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2018/12/09/no-the-u-s-is-not-a-net-exporter-of-crude-oil/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2018/12/09/no-the-u-s-i...) (not crude oil), the future of tight oil doesn't look good - Laherrere seems to forecast peak tight oil for 2018 : https://aspofrance.files.wordpress.com/2018/03/lahall19march.pdf https://aspofrance.files.wordpress.com/2018/03/lahall19march... (it takes a while to collect the data...) Sure, maybe we'll figure out how to economically extract even less conventional hydrocarbons (like shale oil = kerogen, which you have to "cook" before it can be used), but these will be even more expensive and polluting !