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Only complaint is the discussion about super computers consuming vast amounts of power. I do think there is still room for many more doublings in efficiency for

Only complaint is the discussion about super computers consuming vast amounts of power. I do think there is still room for many more doublings in efficiency for computers, it will likely require a switch to a completely new technology though. Also a bit more wild speculation... He does not account for the idea of space based manufacturing (he just mentions living in space). It's at least conceivable we could one day have almost everything made in space (even food) and air dropped to us periodically. Wouldn't this bypass his main argument? We could even have space based energy production, beamed down to earth via laser. There would still be waste heat of the energy consumed, but you would eliminate the waste heat of the actual energy production (he sited ~30% efficiency for power plants, so 70% waste heat).

jbay808 7y ago
"I do think there is still room for many more doublings in efficiency for computers" I don't think our finite physicist is arguing that exponential growth can't happen temporarily, just that eventually we hit the boundaries of our petri dish. It's a challenge to economic models that sometimes deny in principle that the petri dish even has boundaries.
- Mirioron 7y ago
  If the universe is infinite then that does imply that eventually the petri dish will be too.
  - jbay808 7y ago
    It doesn't, actually. The universe is getting bigger but the available negentropy, practically speaking, is not. A big, heat-death universe is not a useful resource to anyone.
phkahler 7y ago
Where does one get material for space based manufacturing?
- seiferteric 7y ago
  Also from space? Asteroid mining I would think. The trick is to only send things down. Sending things up would negate energy savings I am sure.
ben_w 7y ago
Sure, but at some point between 1400 and 2500 years, your (exponential) growth exceeds your (cubic) light cone volume.

jbay808 7y ago

"I do think there is still room for many more doublings in efficiency for computers" I don't think our finite physicist is arguing that exponential growth can't happen temporarily, just that eventually we hit the boundaries of our petri dish. It's a challenge to economic models that sometimes deny in principle that the petri dish even has boundaries.

Mirioron 7y ago
If the universe is infinite then that does imply that eventually the petri dish will be too.
- jbay808 7y ago
  It doesn't, actually. The universe is getting bigger but the available negentropy, practically speaking, is not. A big, heat-death universe is not a useful resource to anyone.

phkahler 7y ago

Where does one get material for space based manufacturing?

seiferteric 7y ago
Also from space? Asteroid mining I would think. The trick is to only send things down. Sending things up would negate energy savings I am sure.

ben_w 7y ago

Sure, but at some point between 1400 and 2500 years, your (exponential) growth exceeds your (cubic) light cone volume.