3 ms·
Eventually, though if things go well more than 100 years. You mention physics, which is one important limitation, but there are others. The global human popul
by dzdt 7y ago
Eventually, though if things go well more than 100 years. You mention physics, which is one important limitation, but there are others.
The global human population is limited and will likely peak and begin to decline within 100 years. [1] Many technologies are limited by the size of the supply chain required to produce them and the scale of factory required to make the technology cost-effective.
For an economy the size of a village, you are never going to have a self-sustaining technology level much higher than a blacksmith shop. Why? Because higher technology requires higher level inputs -- precision parts, refined materials, components that are produced in high tech factories.
The economy is like a pyramid, with the highest technology outputs being the few top layers at the top. Each higher tech layer depends on larger layers below -- the different components and feedstocks and tools required in production of that technology. The overall size of the economy limits the sustainable height of the pyramid.
Currently the economic/technology pyramid size is growing, driven by growth of human population and globalization of the economy. There are also efficieny effects where higher technology decreases the labor required for the lower layers of the pyramid.
When human population peaks and the economy is fully globalized, continued growth of the economic/technology pyramid will be limited to efficiency gains.
My feeling is population will have peaked but globalization will still be ongoing 100 years from now.
It is harder to forecast the limit of efficiency gains -- when robots are smart enough to generally do any work that humans can, what will be the efficiency limits on such robots? I don't expect that to be all played out in 100 years.
The big wildcard is if we extinct ourselves or otherwise cause a huge setback. Biotech is close to the level where engineering an extinction virus is a possible by a lone individual with access to the right lab. Can we survive the technological ability of genocide viruses becoming widespread?
[1] https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/sites/jrcsh/files/lutz_et_al_2018_demographic_and_human_capital.pdf https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/sites/jrcsh/files/lutz_et_al_2018_d...