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> It also seems that in contrast to what you say, other countries are setting up to move away from China, to Vietnam, say. As living standards in China rise, c

> It also seems that in contrast to what you say, other countries are setting up to move away from China, to Vietnam, say. As living standards in China rise, cost of manufacture in China was bound to rise. The Chinese have been preparing for this for quite some time. They have started automation and have begun an ambitious plan of infrastructure lead development called BRI and countries like Italy has signed up to join the project. > I wonder what recourse the CCP really has. I would assume plenty. China can slowly start dumping US treasuries and stop buying more. China can sanction US companies like Apple operating in China. China can start bilateral trade agreements with other countries and use it's financial clout to demand de-dollarization and move international trade to a more neutral currency like the IMF SDR. China can buy more oil from Iran. China can invade Taiwan. China can refuse to honor sanctions against North Korea etc

deleted 7y ago
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zwaps 7y ago
Interesting points. > They have started automation and have begun an ambitious plan of infrastructure lead development called BRI and countries like Italy has signed up to join the project. Well the move away from China is not because of costs, but because of politics. Especially companies here (EU) are very worried about the IP theft and protectionist actions. Except if you are Mercedes or BMW, China is likely to copy your product and then push you out of the domestic market through government regulation, at least that's what I hear. Italy is special. On the one hand, its domestic politics. On the other hand, how meaningful can such an agreement truly be with an EU country? > China can slowly start dumping US treasuries and stop buying more. They already do that. But since this strengthens the yuan, isn't there a limit? So far, it did not seem to affect the US very much. > China can sanction US companies like Apple operating in China. While China is becoming an important market, it is a luxury market segment so I think Apple would survive. On the other hand, this would probably see all other companies leaving China very rapidly. I think this is the most realistic outcome, but I'd see China losing in the long run. > China can start bilateral trade agreements with other countries and use it's financial clout to demand de-dollarization and move international trade to a more neutral currency like the IMF SDR. What effect should that have except decrease Chinese exports and an increase in US exports? The EU does not do real aka meaningful trade agreements bilaterally. Anglo-Saxon countries would neither. For all other countries, China has been trying to expand its influence since the last five years, at least. They have had success in Africa, but have gotten a bad reputation from it. > China can invade Taiwan. I don't see that happening. If Japan, Korea and the US would defend Taiwain's sovereignity, that war would be over very quickly. And with Trump, would you really want to gamble? > China can refuse to honor sanctions against North Korea That is true and we have seen Trump trying to fix the NK situation for that reason. However, I feel like the impact would be rather small. I think we have seen that Kim does not really want nuclear weapons just because. If Trump would have lifted sanctions, he'd probably get rid of them. I guess I shold have asked whether there is any recourse which would damage the US more than China.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

zwaps 7y ago

Interesting points. > They have started automation and have begun an ambitious plan of infrastructure lead development called BRI and countries like Italy has signed up to join the project. Well the move away from China is not because of costs, but because of politics. Especially companies here (EU) are very worried about the IP theft and protectionist actions. Except if you are Mercedes or BMW, China is likely to copy your product and then push you out of the domestic market through government regulation, at least that's what I hear. Italy is special. On the one hand, its domestic politics. On the other hand, how meaningful can such an agreement truly be with an EU country? > China can slowly start dumping US treasuries and stop buying more. They already do that. But since this strengthens the yuan, isn't there a limit? So far, it did not seem to affect the US very much. > China can sanction US companies like Apple operating in China. While China is becoming an important market, it is a luxury market segment so I think Apple would survive. On the other hand, this would probably see all other companies leaving China very rapidly. I think this is the most realistic outcome, but I'd see China losing in the long run. > China can start bilateral trade agreements with other countries and use it's financial clout to demand de-dollarization and move international trade to a more neutral currency like the IMF SDR. What effect should that have except decrease Chinese exports and an increase in US exports? The EU does not do real aka meaningful trade agreements bilaterally. Anglo-Saxon countries would neither. For all other countries, China has been trying to expand its influence since the last five years, at least. They have had success in Africa, but have gotten a bad reputation from it. > China can invade Taiwan. I don't see that happening. If Japan, Korea and the US would defend Taiwain's sovereignity, that war would be over very quickly. And with Trump, would you really want to gamble? > China can refuse to honor sanctions against North Korea That is true and we have seen Trump trying to fix the NK situation for that reason. However, I feel like the impact would be rather small. I think we have seen that Kim does not really want nuclear weapons just because. If Trump would have lifted sanctions, he'd probably get rid of them. I guess I shold have asked whether there is any recourse which would damage the US more than China.