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To a point this trend does continue, with developing countries taking up some slack. We'll see soon if this theory is correct with globally stagnating populati

To a point this trend does continue, with developing countries taking up some slack. We'll see soon if this theory is correct with globally stagnating population or not.

simonh 7y ago
I prefer to say stabilising.
- dsfyu404ed 7y ago
  How you choose to spin it does nothing to change the very negative economic situation that a non-increasing population would bring.
  - ido 7y ago
    that sounds like a problem with our economic system more than with our reproductive trends. At a certain point population growth would have had to plateau, it couldn't have continued growing forever.
  - jcadam 7y ago
    It's all self correcting in the long run, I say. A non-increasing population leads to economic stagnation (at best). That, coupled with a decline in religiosity leading to a loss of societal cohesion will eventually bring down the whole house of cards that is modern civilization. Famine, war, etc. follows. And we're back to a less populated world with high infant mortality again. Hard times lead to a return to religiosity and large families. Hopefully this all happens after I'm gone.
    - simonh 7y ago
      What makes you believe secularism leads to reduced social cohesion? Surely it eliminates a source of friction between religious groups?
      - antepodius 7y ago
        Suppose every member of a small town went to church every sunday. Everyone interacts with everyone else in the area, for a bit. You don't get that in secular society.
        oblio 7y ago
        There's many ways to socialize and few of them are religious. I'm willing to bet we had parties way before we invented religion ;)
        antepodius 7y ago
        Harvest festivals were religious- or at least tied up in religion. You can't just take a core element of a heavy intertwined, complex system without collateral damage. It's like deleting a file in a spaghetti codebase. Half the codebase interacts with any given file in some way or other.
    - oblio 7y ago
      > A non-increasing population leads to economic stagnation (at best). Kind of like in agriculture, there's "intensive" economic growth and "extensive" economic growth. Intensive being when the same number of people are more productive and extensive being when you have more people. You can have economic growth with a stable population. Heck, Romania's having economic growth while its population is declining! (a population loss of about 10% in the last 15 years, during which time its economy doubled)
  - simonh 7y ago
    It's not a matter of spin, it' a matter of reality. At some point we need to move to a sustainable economic model. The alternative is eventual catastrophe. By definition an unsustainable economy, which does not become sustainable, will eventually not be sustained. I also don't agree the consequences have to be 'very' negative. However that's such a vague and undefined term, it could mean anything. I believe the costs are manageable and that a stable, sustainable economy can be compatible with stable or rising living standards.

To a point this trend does continue, with developing countries taking up some slack. We'll see soon if this theory is correct with globally stagnating population or not.

simonh 7y ago

I prefer to say stabilising.

dsfyu404ed 7y ago
How you choose to spin it does nothing to change the very negative economic situation that a non-increasing population would bring.
- ido 7y ago
  that sounds like a problem with our economic system more than with our reproductive trends. At a certain point population growth would have had to plateau, it couldn't have continued growing forever.
- jcadam 7y ago
  It's all self correcting in the long run, I say. A non-increasing population leads to economic stagnation (at best). That, coupled with a decline in religiosity leading to a loss of societal cohesion will eventually bring down the whole house of cards that is modern civilization. Famine, war, etc. follows. And we're back to a less populated world with high infant mortality again. Hard times lead to a return to religiosity and large families. Hopefully this all happens after I'm gone.
  - simonh 7y ago
    What makes you believe secularism leads to reduced social cohesion? Surely it eliminates a source of friction between religious groups?
    - antepodius 7y ago
      Suppose every member of a small town went to church every sunday. Everyone interacts with everyone else in the area, for a bit. You don't get that in secular society.
      - oblio 7y ago
        There's many ways to socialize and few of them are religious. I'm willing to bet we had parties way before we invented religion ;)
        antepodius 7y ago
        Harvest festivals were religious- or at least tied up in religion. You can't just take a core element of a heavy intertwined, complex system without collateral damage. It's like deleting a file in a spaghetti codebase. Half the codebase interacts with any given file in some way or other.
  - oblio 7y ago
    > A non-increasing population leads to economic stagnation (at best). Kind of like in agriculture, there's "intensive" economic growth and "extensive" economic growth. Intensive being when the same number of people are more productive and extensive being when you have more people. You can have economic growth with a stable population. Heck, Romania's having economic growth while its population is declining! (a population loss of about 10% in the last 15 years, during which time its economy doubled)
- simonh 7y ago
  It's not a matter of spin, it' a matter of reality. At some point we need to move to a sustainable economic model. The alternative is eventual catastrophe. By definition an unsustainable economy, which does not become sustainable, will eventually not be sustained. I also don't agree the consequences have to be 'very' negative. However that's such a vague and undefined term, it could mean anything. I believe the costs are manageable and that a stable, sustainable economy can be compatible with stable or rising living standards.