3 ms·

> which improved or over diagnosis cannot account for It is often cited as exactly the reason, and appears to be the scientific consensus. In fact you can see

> which improved or over diagnosis cannot account for It is often cited as exactly the reason, and appears to be the scientific consensus. In fact you can see large swings in diagnosis numbers based on socioeconomic factors[0], which definitely hints at diagnostic bias. > The reported increase is largely attributable to changes in diagnostic practices, referral patterns, availability of services, age at diagnosis, and public awareness.[1][2][3] A widely cited 2002 pilot study concluded that the observed increase in autism in California cannot be explained by changes in diagnostic criteria, but a 2006 analysis found that special education data poorly measured prevalence because so many cases were undiagnosed, and that the 1994–2003 U.S. increase was associated with declines in other diagnostic categories, indicating that diagnostic substitution had occurred. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemiology_of_autism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemiology_of_autism [0] https://www.healthline.com/health-news/the-big-reason-autism-rates-increased-again#2 https://www.healthline.com/health-news/the-big-reason-autism... [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17367287 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17367287 [2] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15858952 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15858952 [3] https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/mrdd.10029 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/mrdd.10029

alexandercrohde 7y ago
I good way to corroborate this would be to track the "junk dna errors" percentage of newborns and see if there's a statistical trend.
wolfgke 7y ago
> It is often cited as exactly the reason, and appears to be the scientific consensus. In fact you can see large swings in diagnosis numbers based on socioeconomic factors[0], which definitely hints at diagnostic bias. A counterthesis based on personal observations: let us assume that there exists a genetic reason for ASD (plausible), assume that ASD people tend to work in specific jobs in specific branch of the economy (think software development and/or research) - also very plausible. Now, additionally, assume (again very plausibly) that people look for potential partners in their social milieu and finally assume that people with similar (also slightly autistic) traits fit better together in a relationship. This, in my opinion, explains quite well why there is a lot of inbreeding between people with a slight Asperger bias which, by genetics, leads to an increase of autism presence (and thus diagnoses) in specific socioeconomic milieus without any diagnosis bias.
- empath75 7y ago
  This is the kind of thing you could test without just spinning out a just-so story.
  - wolfgke 7y ago
    > This is the kind of thing you could test without just spinning out a just-so story. Scientists could test it, but I surely do not have the capacity and capability to do so.

alexandercrohde 7y ago

I good way to corroborate this would be to track the "junk dna errors" percentage of newborns and see if there's a statistical trend.

wolfgke 7y ago

> It is often cited as exactly the reason, and appears to be the scientific consensus. In fact you can see large swings in diagnosis numbers based on socioeconomic factors[0], which definitely hints at diagnostic bias. A counterthesis based on personal observations: let us assume that there exists a genetic reason for ASD (plausible), assume that ASD people tend to work in specific jobs in specific branch of the economy (think software development and/or research) - also very plausible. Now, additionally, assume (again very plausibly) that people look for potential partners in their social milieu and finally assume that people with similar (also slightly autistic) traits fit better together in a relationship. This, in my opinion, explains quite well why there is a lot of inbreeding between people with a slight Asperger bias which, by genetics, leads to an increase of autism presence (and thus diagnoses) in specific socioeconomic milieus without any diagnosis bias.

empath75 7y ago
This is the kind of thing you could test without just spinning out a just-so story.
- wolfgke 7y ago
  > This is the kind of thing you could test without just spinning out a just-so story. Scientists could test it, but I surely do not have the capacity and capability to do so.