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It reminds me of this: https://twitter.com/AukeHoekstra/status/866313289306963969/photo/1 https://twitter.com/AukeHoekstra/status/866313289306963969/p... tl;dr
by isolli 7y ago
It reminds me of this: https://twitter.com/AukeHoekstra/status/866313289306963969/photo/1 https://twitter.com/AukeHoekstra/status/866313289306963969/p...
tl;dr The International Energy Agency kept predicting, year after year, in the face of all the evidence, that solar production would plateau.
- tim333 7y agoThat's quite impressively wrong from the IEA. I wonder how come.
- AnthonyMouse 7y agoOne of the comments there points it out: The government keeps passing subsidies for solar that nominally expire, then renewing them again before they expire. Then the government's models assume the subsidies expire when the law says they will rather than getting renewed time and again.
- pfdietz 7y agoIf you could predict the future, would you work for the IEA?
- tpkj 7y agoWe could be at the point where solar adoption takes off exponentially. On a big picture view: Tony Seba: Clean Disruption - Energy & Transportation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0 On a more micro level view: Solar power solutions coming to places with no grid: https://medium.com/zolaelectric/infinity-smart-grid-delivering-clean-affordable-reliable-24-hour-power-for-anyone-anywhere-70382e8aef7f https://medium.com/zolaelectric/infinity-smart-grid-deliveri...
- ben_w 7y agoIt has taken off exponentially. That’s what the growth curve you’re looking at is called. :)
- tpkj 7y agoNo, it has not taken off exponentially yet in the way the Tony Seba video demonstrates with a picture of 5th Ave in NYC in the year 1900 where there are lots of horses used for transportation, and only one car, compared with a picture of the same street in 1913, where the street is full of cars, and there is only one horse to be found.
- jessaustin 7y agoScroll down the page I linked to the graph "Exponential Growth of Solar PV". A straight line on a log graph is exponential by definition.
- tpkj 7y agoThere's the formal definition of "exponential", and then there is "exponential" in the sense of completely disruptive and transformative as in the example Tony Seba gives. I am referring to the latter.
- jessaustin 7y agoAt least they're consistent. If linear growth is the only thing they can imagine, then they definitely can't imagine exponential growth.