> Sophisticated open source, IaaS, and SaaS offerings greatly lower the barrier of entry in this industry I would question this assumption. In my view, the exi

> Sophisticated open source, IaaS, and SaaS offerings greatly lower the barrier of entry in this industry I would question this assumption. In my view, the existence of these tools actually increases the barrier to entry because they represent additional skills that developers are expected to posses in order to be competitive in the job market. This is actually a common complaint among developers whenever a new technology gains viral popularity (e.g. AWS, react, k8s). > That automation of labor runs counter to rising wages Well of course it does, except for the people who are paid very well to build the automated systems (i.e. programmers). Fortunately for programmers there still isn't enough supply to meet demand, so senior developers on the frontiers of popular technologies can command outsized salaries but still can't do enough work to eliminate the need for their less sophisticated colleagues (yet). > specialist steeped in closed source arcana Sure, that doesn't really contradict what I'm saying, but I'd also note that whatever closed source project one might be working on is almost certainly benefiting from a gigantic open-source force multiplier in some form or another. > When the demand is met and equilibrium reached, I expect salaries to normalize back to what other technical professionals command (e.g. aerospace and civil engineers). On this we agree. I tell developers all the time that they should enjoy it while it lasts because this definitely won't last forever. I'm pretty bearish on things like AI programmers, but I think open-source and commodity B2B software solutions are rapidly approaching the point where the costs associated with running an engineering department will appear much less imperative.