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So to use a specific example of what I think you are saying about restricting components making other countries more influential: Huawei can't buy Qualcomm chip

So to use a specific example of what I think you are saying about restricting components making other countries more influential: Huawei can't buy Qualcomm chips, so they use Chinese chips instead (which are inferior for several years before they catch up), so they are less competitive in Europe and Samsung sells more, which causes Korea to have a bit more worldwide influence compared to China over that several year period? That seems plausible, but also pretty speculative and it seems like there could be negative consequences too. For example, if the Chinese market switches over to Chinese chips, a lot more money will be invested in Chinese chips and they will probably develop more quickly. Normally the US complains about China blocking US products, the US blocking US products seems a bit less usual. The article points out that there a problems with China, and points out that there is a policy available that will hurt US companies and Chinese companies. I feel like I am missing the part though, where this policy fixes the problems with China. I feel like I need to understand that part before I am convinced that this is a good idea.

CharlesColeman 7y ago
> That seems plausible, but also pretty speculative and it seems like there could be negative consequences too. For example, if the Chinese market switches over to Chinese chips, a lot more money will be invested in Chinese chips and they will probably develop more quickly. Those negative consequences presume that the Chinese won't have the goal of switching over to domestic chips if they have access to American chips, but I think that's false. They've shown a strong desire to pursue import substitution and then turn those companies into international competitors. Denying the American supplies forces them to switch before they're ready, rather than when they're fully ready. It's also not guaranteed that the Chinese investments will bear fruit. For instance, China has been trying to acquire modern jet engine technology for decades and decades, and still hasn't succeeded. IIRC, jet engines and microchips have a major characteristic in common: most of the magic is in the manufacturing techniques and those are difficult to reverse engineer from finished products.

CharlesColeman 7y ago

> That seems plausible, but also pretty speculative and it seems like there could be negative consequences too. For example, if the Chinese market switches over to Chinese chips, a lot more money will be invested in Chinese chips and they will probably develop more quickly. Those negative consequences presume that the Chinese won't have the goal of switching over to domestic chips if they have access to American chips, but I think that's false. They've shown a strong desire to pursue import substitution and then turn those companies into international competitors. Denying the American supplies forces them to switch before they're ready, rather than when they're fully ready. It's also not guaranteed that the Chinese investments will bear fruit. For instance, China has been trying to acquire modern jet engine technology for decades and decades, and still hasn't succeeded. IIRC, jet engines and microchips have a major characteristic in common: most of the magic is in the manufacturing techniques and those are difficult to reverse engineer from finished products.