4 ms·

In an era of ultra-low unemployment rates, I don't see who this is protecting. If anything it's hurting US businesses by denying willing workers.

adbge 7y ago
Labor participation rates and wages remain low.
- wmil 7y ago
  Prime age labour force participation is looking up lately: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2018/08/02/the-recent-rebound-in-prime-age-labor-force-participation/ https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2018/08/02/the-recen...
mancerayder 7y ago
Aren't unemployment rates in the U.S. calculated on folks who report, for example when they apply for unemployment benefits? If you simply give up after a year or two, it's not counted, unless something has changed recently. Thus the "participation rate" comment of the other reply.
- baron816 7y ago
  No, it’s more complicated than that. The BLS does a robust survey. They also track discouraged workers who have left the labor force. https://www.bls.gov/home.htm https://www.bls.gov/home.htm
  - salawat 7y ago
    I've been thumbing through their survey methodologies, and am actually hard pressed to find anyone in any social circle who has directly or even indirectly to the best of their knowledge participated in these surveys. Specifically the CPS which tracks the unemployment vs. employment rates. Given that it takes the form of a monthly survey, I'd expect more people to actually remember having done so. Now I could understand inferring employment via tax documents cross referenced with unemployment papers, but to my understanding that level of information sharing is not generally done. Where do the statistics come from? Here's the answer from BLS's Current Population Survey FAQ at w.r.t. where the data comes from. https://www.bls.gov/cps/faq.htm#Ques2 https://www.bls.gov/cps/faq.htm#Ques2 >Because unemployment insurance records relate only to people who have applied for such benefits, and since it is impractical to count every unemployed person each month, the government conducts a monthly survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS) to measure the extent of unemployment in the country. The CPS has been conducted in the United States every month since 1940, when it began as a Work Projects Administration program. In 1942, the U.S. Census Bureau took over responsibility for the CPS. The survey has been expanded and modified several times since then. So what do the statistics being gathered actually represent and where do they come from? More digging required... Ah, here it is. Survey methodology. ho! https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/cps/technical-documentation/methodology.html https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/cps/technical-docume... I'm not super Survey methodology savvy, (more familiar with anti-patterns for it honestly, and figuring out when the Map starts diverging from the landscape), but in terms of what it is actually measuring, and how much divergence is introduced between reality and the convenient model inferred from the survey's statistical finger waggling... I leave that to the more Stats inclined among us. It seems an okay methodology, but it doesn't strike me in terms of being the most accurate measurement, merely getting enough data that someone feels that the divergences can be safely tucked under the rug. I will say, the folks putting this together seem to have done a great job documenting it. I wish my developers could be relied upon to do as such.
rhcom2 7y ago
With this change only effecting 100,000 visa holders it seems like it could only be for political headlines.
- Gibbon1 7y ago
  It's all about thuggish exercise of power.
davidw 7y ago
This is an insightful piece: https://www.theroot.com/yes-trump-voters-will-stick-with-him-forever-1795488790 https://www.theroot.com/yes-trump-voters-will-stick-with-him... It's not about doing the right thing for the economy, it's about pissing off/hurting 'the libruhls'.
- powerslacker 7y ago
  > America is, at its core, a nasty, venal, selfish and racist culture. No bias to see here folks. Move along. Trump voters and conservatives rarely care about pissing off liberals. Remember the internet is a crazy place where those who shout the loudest get the most attention. The vast majority of people are relatively sane and aren't out to hurt anybody. I'd encourage you to have an honest conversation with a few Trump voters before making blanket accusations. People seem to think that all Trump voters care about is the economy. In reality, most of the ones I've met care deeply about their families and their country. They tend to see left wing policies as a threat to their future and the future of their children.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - mactrey 7y ago
    And how exactly would allowing H-4 spouses to work be a threat to their future and the future of their children?
    - ycombonator 7y ago
      Depresses wages
    - the_common_man 7y ago
      Per the article, it is 100k jobs. That's a lot of jobs
  - strikelaserclaw 7y ago
    Most people would be surprised at who voted for trump. No one openly declares it for the fear of being labeled a racist or whatever. There are many many people who voted trump for different variety of reasons.

adbge 7y ago

Labor participation rates and wages remain low.

wmil 7y ago
Prime age labour force participation is looking up lately: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2018/08/02/the-recent-rebound-in-prime-age-labor-force-participation/ https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2018/08/02/the-recen...

mancerayder 7y ago

Aren't unemployment rates in the U.S. calculated on folks who report, for example when they apply for unemployment benefits? If you simply give up after a year or two, it's not counted, unless something has changed recently. Thus the "participation rate" comment of the other reply.

baron816 7y ago
No, it’s more complicated than that. The BLS does a robust survey. They also track discouraged workers who have left the labor force. https://www.bls.gov/home.htm https://www.bls.gov/home.htm
- salawat 7y ago
  I've been thumbing through their survey methodologies, and am actually hard pressed to find anyone in any social circle who has directly or even indirectly to the best of their knowledge participated in these surveys. Specifically the CPS which tracks the unemployment vs. employment rates. Given that it takes the form of a monthly survey, I'd expect more people to actually remember having done so. Now I could understand inferring employment via tax documents cross referenced with unemployment papers, but to my understanding that level of information sharing is not generally done. Where do the statistics come from? Here's the answer from BLS's Current Population Survey FAQ at w.r.t. where the data comes from. https://www.bls.gov/cps/faq.htm#Ques2 https://www.bls.gov/cps/faq.htm#Ques2 >Because unemployment insurance records relate only to people who have applied for such benefits, and since it is impractical to count every unemployed person each month, the government conducts a monthly survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS) to measure the extent of unemployment in the country. The CPS has been conducted in the United States every month since 1940, when it began as a Work Projects Administration program. In 1942, the U.S. Census Bureau took over responsibility for the CPS. The survey has been expanded and modified several times since then. So what do the statistics being gathered actually represent and where do they come from? More digging required... Ah, here it is. Survey methodology. ho! https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/cps/technical-documentation/methodology.html https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/cps/technical-docume... I'm not super Survey methodology savvy, (more familiar with anti-patterns for it honestly, and figuring out when the Map starts diverging from the landscape), but in terms of what it is actually measuring, and how much divergence is introduced between reality and the convenient model inferred from the survey's statistical finger waggling... I leave that to the more Stats inclined among us. It seems an okay methodology, but it doesn't strike me in terms of being the most accurate measurement, merely getting enough data that someone feels that the divergences can be safely tucked under the rug. I will say, the folks putting this together seem to have done a great job documenting it. I wish my developers could be relied upon to do as such.

rhcom2 7y ago

With this change only effecting 100,000 visa holders it seems like it could only be for political headlines.

Gibbon1 7y ago
It's all about thuggish exercise of power.

davidw 7y ago

This is an insightful piece: https://www.theroot.com/yes-trump-voters-will-stick-with-him-forever-1795488790 https://www.theroot.com/yes-trump-voters-will-stick-with-him... It's not about doing the right thing for the economy, it's about pissing off/hurting 'the libruhls'.

powerslacker 7y ago
> America is, at its core, a nasty, venal, selfish and racist culture. No bias to see here folks. Move along. Trump voters and conservatives rarely care about pissing off liberals. Remember the internet is a crazy place where those who shout the loudest get the most attention. The vast majority of people are relatively sane and aren't out to hurt anybody. I'd encourage you to have an honest conversation with a few Trump voters before making blanket accusations. People seem to think that all Trump voters care about is the economy. In reality, most of the ones I've met care deeply about their families and their country. They tend to see left wing policies as a threat to their future and the future of their children.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- mactrey 7y ago
  And how exactly would allowing H-4 spouses to work be a threat to their future and the future of their children?
  - ycombonator 7y ago
    Depresses wages
  - the_common_man 7y ago
    Per the article, it is 100k jobs. That's a lot of jobs
- strikelaserclaw 7y ago
  Most people would be surprised at who voted for trump. No one openly declares it for the fear of being labeled a racist or whatever. There are many many people who voted trump for different variety of reasons.