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Anyone who's been watch European football for a decade knows how much disparity exists between teams that can afford data science and teams that can't. Sports

by NTDF9 7y ago

Anyone who's been watch European football for a decade knows how much disparity exists between teams that can afford data science and teams that can't. Sports are filled with numbers and any teams/players who can afford it has such a leg up, its not even a joke

rchaud 7y ago
There's much more at play than just analytics. Formations, club culture and coaching styles factor heavily into player performance. Manchester United for example have spent VERY heavily on new players since 2013, and the ROI has been awful almost across the board. They acquired Alexis Sanchez in 2017, who was joint top scorer in the 2016/17 season with 24 goals. At United, he has scored only 5 goals in 18 months. Chelsea FC are scoring one duck after another by signing Morata, Giroud and Higuain, all of whom have flopped as strikers despite doing well in their previous teams. Arsenal are an example of a team that uses analytics to suss out bargains in the transfer market. And yet, two of their most expensive analytics-driven signings, defender Shokrodan Mustafi and Granit Xhaka, have fared poorly while cheaper buys like Sokratis Papasthopulous have thrived.
- hubridnoxx 7y ago
  How do you know that Mustafi and Xhaka were data-driven signings?
  - rchaud 7y ago
    From a 2016 article,. Quotes from a Premier League agent "This summer had a familiar feel in many respects as Arsenal faltered in the transfer window (...) yet it concluded with Granit Xhaka, Rob Holding, Skhodran Mustafi and Lucas Perez arriving for a combined fee approaching £90million. “Four years ago, they bought a company called StatDNA in Chicago,(..)They will take a player and collate data based on every pass, sprint, shot, assist, goal – you name it – he has ever made. These stats are fed into a computer that assesses strengths and weaknesses against every professional in the game before producing an overall value of that player. Arsenal tend to use statistics to raise questions or confirm observations on possible targets and sometimes unearth players for scouting. " https://www.standard.co.uk/sport/football/the-deal-arsene-wengers-moneyball-works-but-next-arsenal-boss-needs-super-agents-like-manchester-a3339776.html https://www.standard.co.uk/sport/football/the-deal-arsene-we...
- NTDF9 7y ago
  I don't think you get the scale of analytics. It's not just goals, touches, formations anymore. It's about entire models of game play style and running simulations with a prospective player to see how they fit in. The data science there is not querieable science. It's more about simulations with numbers.
  - 0xADEADBEE 7y ago
    I'm wildly skeptical of this. Do you have anything I could read to better understand it? From where I'm sitting, this isn't Sabermetrics, chiefly because football isn't a series of set pieces with very clearly defined plays and variance of individuals. You sound pretty confident in what you're saying though so I'd be genuinely thrilled to be shown how idiotic my supposition is!
smcl 7y ago
I haven’t seen any reference to this. It seems to me the teams who dominate simply have the money to splurge on players (transfer fees and wages) facilities and managers. That’s it. Sometimes there’s an anomalous team who succeed without vast wealth (Leicester) or fail despite it (Tottenham) ... but a look at the teams taking part in the latter stages of the Champions League in the last decade doesn’t suggest a group of teams shrewdly applying their analytics teams ... but just those fat with cash who can pay their way to success.
- NTDF9 7y ago
  But that's exactly my point. Teams with money buy the best players and managers. But what is the definition of best? It used to be scouting and feelings. Today, it's almost down to great data science. That's the reason why Jurgen Klopp gets $75M to buy Virgil Van Dijk and $60M for Allison. The data homework was done and they are almost guaranteed to succeed in Klopps setup. Pogba probably doesn't fit in Mourinho style teams and that's bad data science setting a team back for a few seasons
  - actuator 7y ago
    I don't think Pogba's problem is style. During and even after Mourinho's reign most of the time Pogba looks like someone who couldn't be arsed to play for MUFC. He has been extremely lazy in tracking back, goes missing in games.
JackFr 7y ago
> Sports are filled with numbers and any teams/players who can afford it has such a leg up, its not even a joke I remain unconvinced. There are a lot of numbers and anecdotes thrown out. But how much is confirmation bias? And does it withstand robust hypothesis testing? The A's have been in Oakland since 1968. They've been to the World Series 6 times and won 4. None of those World Series appearances occurred during the tenure of Billy Beane as GM, 1997 to the present day.
- dylan604 7y ago
  There's still a lot to be said about locker room cohesion. Just look at any of the teams managed by Jose Mourinho. His teams quit playing because of his management style. (I still think the players are wrong from this.) Once he's gone, that same crap performing squad suddenly start winning. Personalities are a huge thing in sports. The English national team is an example of having an enormous amount of talent on paper, but just didn't play well together as a team. (Until this most recent squad at the World Cup).
- cleetus 7y ago
  I think part of that is "Moneyball" has tended be more successful over the course of a 162 game season rather than the 5 or 7 game series of the playoffs where there can be a lot more variation in outcomes. I also think the analytics quickly caught on across the league so the A's advantage was short lived. Now pretty much every team is very heavily invested in it.

by NTDF9 7y ago

rchaud 7y ago

There's much more at play than just analytics. Formations, club culture and coaching styles factor heavily into player performance. Manchester United for example have spent VERY heavily on new players since 2013, and the ROI has been awful almost across the board. They acquired Alexis Sanchez in 2017, who was joint top scorer in the 2016/17 season with 24 goals. At United, he has scored only 5 goals in 18 months. Chelsea FC are scoring one duck after another by signing Morata, Giroud and Higuain, all of whom have flopped as strikers despite doing well in their previous teams. Arsenal are an example of a team that uses analytics to suss out bargains in the transfer market. And yet, two of their most expensive analytics-driven signings, defender Shokrodan Mustafi and Granit Xhaka, have fared poorly while cheaper buys like Sokratis Papasthopulous have thrived.

hubridnoxx 7y ago
How do you know that Mustafi and Xhaka were data-driven signings?
- rchaud 7y ago
  From a 2016 article,. Quotes from a Premier League agent "This summer had a familiar feel in many respects as Arsenal faltered in the transfer window (...) yet it concluded with Granit Xhaka, Rob Holding, Skhodran Mustafi and Lucas Perez arriving for a combined fee approaching £90million. “Four years ago, they bought a company called StatDNA in Chicago,(..)They will take a player and collate data based on every pass, sprint, shot, assist, goal – you name it – he has ever made. These stats are fed into a computer that assesses strengths and weaknesses against every professional in the game before producing an overall value of that player. Arsenal tend to use statistics to raise questions or confirm observations on possible targets and sometimes unearth players for scouting. " https://www.standard.co.uk/sport/football/the-deal-arsene-wengers-moneyball-works-but-next-arsenal-boss-needs-super-agents-like-manchester-a3339776.html https://www.standard.co.uk/sport/football/the-deal-arsene-we...
NTDF9 7y ago
I don't think you get the scale of analytics. It's not just goals, touches, formations anymore. It's about entire models of game play style and running simulations with a prospective player to see how they fit in. The data science there is not querieable science. It's more about simulations with numbers.
- 0xADEADBEE 7y ago
  I'm wildly skeptical of this. Do you have anything I could read to better understand it? From where I'm sitting, this isn't Sabermetrics, chiefly because football isn't a series of set pieces with very clearly defined plays and variance of individuals. You sound pretty confident in what you're saying though so I'd be genuinely thrilled to be shown how idiotic my supposition is!

smcl 7y ago

I haven’t seen any reference to this. It seems to me the teams who dominate simply have the money to splurge on players (transfer fees and wages) facilities and managers. That’s it. Sometimes there’s an anomalous team who succeed without vast wealth (Leicester) or fail despite it (Tottenham) ... but a look at the teams taking part in the latter stages of the Champions League in the last decade doesn’t suggest a group of teams shrewdly applying their analytics teams ... but just those fat with cash who can pay their way to success.

NTDF9 7y ago
But that's exactly my point. Teams with money buy the best players and managers. But what is the definition of best? It used to be scouting and feelings. Today, it's almost down to great data science. That's the reason why Jurgen Klopp gets $75M to buy Virgil Van Dijk and $60M for Allison. The data homework was done and they are almost guaranteed to succeed in Klopps setup. Pogba probably doesn't fit in Mourinho style teams and that's bad data science setting a team back for a few seasons
- actuator 7y ago
  I don't think Pogba's problem is style. During and even after Mourinho's reign most of the time Pogba looks like someone who couldn't be arsed to play for MUFC. He has been extremely lazy in tracking back, goes missing in games.

JackFr 7y ago

> Sports are filled with numbers and any teams/players who can afford it has such a leg up, its not even a joke I remain unconvinced. There are a lot of numbers and anecdotes thrown out. But how much is confirmation bias? And does it withstand robust hypothesis testing? The A's have been in Oakland since 1968. They've been to the World Series 6 times and won 4. None of those World Series appearances occurred during the tenure of Billy Beane as GM, 1997 to the present day.

dylan604 7y ago
There's still a lot to be said about locker room cohesion. Just look at any of the teams managed by Jose Mourinho. His teams quit playing because of his management style. (I still think the players are wrong from this.) Once he's gone, that same crap performing squad suddenly start winning. Personalities are a huge thing in sports. The English national team is an example of having an enormous amount of talent on paper, but just didn't play well together as a team. (Until this most recent squad at the World Cup).
cleetus 7y ago
I think part of that is "Moneyball" has tended be more successful over the course of a 162 game season rather than the 5 or 7 game series of the playoffs where there can be a lot more variation in outcomes. I also think the analytics quickly caught on across the league so the A's advantage was short lived. Now pretty much every team is very heavily invested in it.