I was a wall st enterprise software equity research analyst until recently so let me shed some light on the methodology here. The Morgan Stanley analyst offered

I was a wall st enterprise software equity research analyst until recently so let me shed some light on the methodology here. The Morgan Stanley analyst offered three target prices across his bull / bear / base case analyses, which is a common way to publish a stress test of your thesis and analysis. The base case analysis yields his official $230 target price, which is what he considers to be the most likely outcome. The bull case analysis represents where the stock could move if everything goes right (in his analysis), while the bear case analysis represents where the stock could move if everything falls apart (in his analysis). The $10 TP that's been published is pretty out of the ordinary and appears like it was published to grab the attention of his readers and the press. Research analysts commonly will publish a controversial analysis that can be supported by their work in order to get more investors on the phone, since that's where commissions are generated. This could also potentially be the MS analyst sending a message to the company that they need to do more to address concerns around demand. This sort of research is typically read by investor relations, and the important pieces sent along to C-suite executives and the board.