I can't find the note, only the same quotes from it. I imagine the basic assumption is that if the market is tapped out, revenues will slow, plateau and then b

I can't find the note, only the same quotes from it. I imagine the basic assumption is that if the market is tapped out, revenues will slow, plateau and then begin to fall before Tesla reaches sustained profitability. That means debts will begin to grow again. Current book value is about $26 a share, of which about $12 is cash on hand. If debt remained constant but no new cash came in, book value goes to $14 at the moment of bankruptcy. Discounting for "bankruptcy really sucks for shareholders", $10 is a fairly defensible worst-case.