4 ms·

Global sea-level rise could be double our current predictions

42 points by gfmio 7y ago

Proven 7y ago
It's been raising 3-4 mm per year. Double that and it's still nothing to worry about. Have beachside property? You have 20-30 years to GTFO. Sell it to somebody who will rebuild it for a 30-59cm higher sea level and move inland or to a highrise if you can't handle it.
WillPostForFood 7y ago
From the report: For a +2 °C temperature scenario consistent with the Paris Agreement, we obtain a median estimate of a 26 cm SLR contribution by 2100, with a 95th percentile value of 81 cm. For a +5 °C temperature scenario more consistent with unchecked emissions growth, the corresponding values are 51 and 178 cm, respectively. Inclusion of thermal expansion and glacier contributions results in a global total SLR estimate that exceeds 2 m at the 95th percentile.
agentultra 7y ago
Ignorant, uninformed question: are insurance actuaries managing mortgages and properties following these updates? What is going to happen to families with land in areas that are going to be permanantly flooded in 10, 20, 30 years? Do we even have a plan for that?
- thfuran 7y ago
  And ~~where should I buy my house today to get a good deal on tomorrow's beachfront property?~~ how long until this starts having interesting effects on real estate prices?
  - opportune 7y ago
    I think it's impossible to say, since if you were off by a single foot your property would be effectively worthless I believe sea level rise is already beginning to slow down the housing market in Miami
- sjf 7y ago
  I can't answer your question, but what will happen to the property market after sea level rise is a central part of Kim Stanley Robinson's book New York 2140. It is fascinating and I can highly recommend it.
- ergothus 7y ago
  > following these updates? Follow up from someone likewise uninformed: do they have an escape clause that means they can avoid paying out (act of God, etc) meaning that no one is actually directly accountable?
- challenger22 7y ago
  Interesting bit: during a press event recently, Warren Buffett was asked whether increasing climate-related catastrophes would hurt the insurance companies in his portfolio. The answer was, to paraphrase, that they would help the companies more than hurt them. Even in a particular year that has unforeseen high levels of disaster, the companies will quickly update their risk models and increase their premiums, essentially bringing in the same margins as before on a larger risk pool = more profit.
fearlesengineer 7y ago
This is a giant steaming pile of horseshit. The world will get 4 inches of rise (at most) by 2100. The tragedy is that politicians believe the climate con men. Most of the numbers are faked. Everyone who is paying actual attention to the fraud knows it. The climate screamers are protecting their funding and their fake SJW totalitarian aspirations.
alwaysanagenda 7y ago
Global sea-level rise, according to previous predictions, which are now certainly incorrect, could be twice as severe, according to our new predictions, which may also be incorrect. https://www.apnews.com/bd45c372caf118ec99964ea547880cd0 https://www.apnews.com/bd45c372caf118ec99964ea547880cd0

42 points by gfmio 7y ago

It's been raising 3-4 mm per year. Double that and it's still nothing to worry about. Have beachside property? You have 20-30 years to GTFO. Sell it to somebody who will rebuild it for a 30-59cm higher sea level and move inland or to a highrise if you can't handle it.

WillPostForFood 7y ago

From the report: For a +2 °C temperature scenario consistent with the Paris Agreement, we obtain a median estimate of a 26 cm SLR contribution by 2100, with a 95th percentile value of 81 cm. For a +5 °C temperature scenario more consistent with unchecked emissions growth, the corresponding values are 51 and 178 cm, respectively. Inclusion of thermal expansion and glacier contributions results in a global total SLR estimate that exceeds 2 m at the 95th percentile.

agentultra 7y ago

Ignorant, uninformed question: are insurance actuaries managing mortgages and properties following these updates? What is going to happen to families with land in areas that are going to be permanantly flooded in 10, 20, 30 years? Do we even have a plan for that?

thfuran 7y ago
And ~~where should I buy my house today to get a good deal on tomorrow's beachfront property?~~ how long until this starts having interesting effects on real estate prices?
- opportune 7y ago
  I think it's impossible to say, since if you were off by a single foot your property would be effectively worthless I believe sea level rise is already beginning to slow down the housing market in Miami
sjf 7y ago
I can't answer your question, but what will happen to the property market after sea level rise is a central part of Kim Stanley Robinson's book New York 2140. It is fascinating and I can highly recommend it.
ergothus 7y ago
> following these updates? Follow up from someone likewise uninformed: do they have an escape clause that means they can avoid paying out (act of God, etc) meaning that no one is actually directly accountable?
challenger22 7y ago
Interesting bit: during a press event recently, Warren Buffett was asked whether increasing climate-related catastrophes would hurt the insurance companies in his portfolio. The answer was, to paraphrase, that they would help the companies more than hurt them. Even in a particular year that has unforeseen high levels of disaster, the companies will quickly update their risk models and increase their premiums, essentially bringing in the same margins as before on a larger risk pool = more profit.

fearlesengineer 7y ago

This is a giant steaming pile of horseshit. The world will get 4 inches of rise (at most) by 2100. The tragedy is that politicians believe the climate con men. Most of the numbers are faked. Everyone who is paying actual attention to the fraud knows it. The climate screamers are protecting their funding and their fake SJW totalitarian aspirations.

alwaysanagenda 7y ago

Global sea-level rise, according to previous predictions, which are now certainly incorrect, could be twice as severe, according to our new predictions, which may also be incorrect. https://www.apnews.com/bd45c372caf118ec99964ea547880cd0 https://www.apnews.com/bd45c372caf118ec99964ea547880cd0