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I'm surprised no-one here has mentioned the excellent book "The Limits to Growth" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth http://en.wikipedia.org/wik
by taliesinb 16y ago
I'm surprised no-one here has mentioned the excellent book "The Limits to Growth" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth). It's a book I can't recommend highly enough, even though the first edition was written almost 40 years ago (it was last updated in 2008).
The basic concept is a system of differential equations called "World3" that allows for the analysis and qualitative understanding of the multitude of interactions between the various bio-geo-chemo-physical systems that couple us to our planet.
While it doesn't strive to make actual concrete predictions, it does enumerate a bunch of different possible trajectories that are all consistent with the most current scientific models, and with policy choices we as a species might make over the next 50 years.
And the conclusion is pretty much that we are doomed. Sadly. It seems likely (especially with the failure of Copenhagen) that we just are not politically capable of the level of co-ordinated activity needed to prevent a massive 'overshoot' beyond sustainable human population and consumption levels.
Carl Sagan talked about the potential for the human race to snuff itself out. He might have been thinking about the Cold War at the time, but it seems the real war is the one we have we are waging on the very systems that support our continued existence on earth.
- zoomzoom 16y agoFor an alternate perspective, read "the next 200 years" by Herman Kahn.
- bryanlarsen 16y agoConsidering how completely wrong the book has been predicting the last 40 years, I think it's pretty safe to ignore it. The air, water and soil today is significantly cleaner now than it was 40 years ago, population is now predicted to start declining within 50 years, et cetera.