4 ms·

Constantly hitting records for economic highs. Lowest unemployment rate for blacks and Hispanics in the history of recorded unemployment rates. Rising wages.

Constantly hitting records for economic highs. Lowest unemployment rate for blacks and Hispanics in the history of recorded unemployment rates. Rising wages. Just took a huge step in eradicating HIV in the US by securing free treatment for 200k poor people every year. Between the technological advances in solar/wind/batter, renewed interest in nuclear, and shrinking CO2 it seems climate change is well on its way to being solved. Significant prison reform which should be great for young people, especially minorities. Marijuana is well on its way to becoming legal. Gay marriage was recently made legal across the nation. I'm on the older end of the Millennial generation, and everywhere I look things are heading pretty rapidly in the right direction. Sure, millennials aren't the top political priority, but that age range isn't ever the top priority, so it can't be the cause of this wide spread pessimism. I mostly agree with you about social media, but I would add news and how news interacts with social media. Once the news figured out how to get the most views by really ramping up the hate/anger/fear, and were able to track that to the extreme, it really destroyed the way people get information. Every day is just more rage-bait fueled by this news/social media cohort.

rawrmaan 7y ago
> shrinking CO2 [citation needed] Global CO2 emissions are nowhere near peaking, let alone shrinking.
- challenger22 7y ago
  I imagine GP was referring to US emissions, considering that his other points were US-centric. You are correct globally. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?tab=chart&time=1751..2016 https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-... https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emis...
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
masterj 7y ago
> Between the technological advances in solar/wind/batter, renewed interest in nuclear, and shrinking CO2 it seems climate change is well on its way to being solved Do you realize that the most optimistic projections in climate change papers already assume massive improvements in these technologies? They also assume massive carbon extraction technologies working at global scale that don't exist yet. Even these optimistic scenarios have dire consequences, and we're not on track to hitting these at all. If it were a matter of "small improvements in over time", the tech would be sufficient, but it's more like we need to reduce double digit % of CO2 emissions year over year for the next several decades. https://twitter.com/robbie_andrew/status/1129667484527804418 https://twitter.com/robbie_andrew/status/1129667484527804418 Some countries do have declining CO2 emissions, but the ones that matter: China, India do not. Unless dramatic action is taken, we're still a long ways away from a global peak in CO2 emissions.
- Consultant32452 7y ago
  I saw some of the most recent projections for global GDP impacts due to climate change and it was a fraction of US GDP. That's unfortunate, but much better than I thought. We will make it. US CO2 emissions peaked in around 2007. Per capita CO2 in the US is the lowest it's been in 50 years. We're behind the EU in CO2 reduction, but it is going down. India and China are worrisome, but China is making solar panels as fast is it possibly can. Political priority of millennials was mentioned in this context too. I haven't seen it, is there wide-spread support among Millennials for the trade war with China or other aggressive measures which will move manufacturing to countries with better CO2 regulations?
  - masterj 7y ago
    > I saw some of the most recent projections for global GDP impacts due to climate change and it was a fraction of US GDP. That's unfortunate, but much better than I thought. We will make it. Read the assumptions behind those projections and get back to me. They are very, very conservative and should be read as a "best case scenario". Ex: - Economic growth is assumed as part of the model - They look at the marginal economic cost of an additional very hot day today, look at the projected increase, and assume that the impact will scale linearly Even those numbers are damning, and are put forth to help justify the cost of climate action. Reading them as "well that's not that bad" is just way off the mark. > US CO2 emissions peaked in around 2007. Per capita CO2 in the US is the lowest it's been in 50 years. We're behind the EU in CO2 reduction, but it is going down. Not nearly fast enough. Direction is correct, but magnitude is not nearly as big as it needs to be. Assuming that technological progress will make up the difference is magical thinking that the data does not back up. You're hand-waving away what experts are saying based on a gut feeling of "it's not going to be that bad" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias). I recommend reading some papers, especially the NCA, and really sitting with what they say. https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/ https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/
graenxa 7y ago
> it seems climate change is well on its way to being solved This is laughable untrue. EMISSIONS may have peaked (I'm not certain that's the case long-term), there's still plenty of carbon in the atmosphere and continuing to be added. The effects of carbon emissions will continue to compound on themselves[0]. We are still well on our way to >2 degree global warming where island nations will be eaten up by the sea, we will struggle to produce food for the population. Much of earth will become unlivable[1]. The effects of carbon emissions on global climate are not linear. They're exponential. Once the changes start they are impossible to stop. If you think we've got climate change figured out, I really encourage you to read into the subject a little more. It's incredibly serious. We have already started seeing the effects. It's not too late to do something about it, but sitting back and assuming someone else has it figured out it fantastically irresponsible right now. [0] - https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/20/science/earthworms-soil-climate.html https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/20/science/earthworms-soil-c... [1] - http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans.html http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-...
- Consultant32452 7y ago
  The world is building and deploying solar panels at break-neck speeds. Electric cars and other pollution reduction measures are coming online. I'm well aware of the risks from existing coal burning plants, new plants being built in China/India/etc, shipping, feedback loops with stored CO2 in the ocean, all of it. It's nice to imagine that the world can turn on a dime, but it can't. The global "situation" is going to get worse before it gets better, but the proverbial ball is rolling in the right direction.
  - vkou 7y ago
    > The world is building and deploying solar panels at break-neck speeds. It doesn't matter how many solar panels are deployed[1] What matters is how many gasoline cars, coal plants, and gas plants are going dark. Net-over-net, they aren't. [1] And this decade of break-neck speeds got us to... 2% solar deployment. We may hit 5% in another decade - and we need to get emissions to net zero in six years, if we want to avoid catastrophe.
entropea 7y ago
Things are only getting better for those blatantly out of touch with the reality of lower classes. Wages are not rising when you factor in Inflation[1], for some portions of the country even going down in buying power since the early 70's. Nearly half of Americans are poor or low income [2]. [1] https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/08/07/for-most-us-workers-real-wages-have-barely-budged-for-decades/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/08/07/for-most-us... [2] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/census-data-half-of-us-poor-or-low-income/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/census-data-half-of-us-poor-or-...
- Consultant32452 7y ago
  That buying power you're talking about in the 70s is largely the buying power of white men. Women largely weren't allowed to have real jobs. Minorities either. What do you think that chart looks like when you include their buying power in the 70s? We've also pulled over a billion people out of abject poverty and food scarcity since then. Out of touch with the lower classes indeed.
- volkl48 7y ago
  Long-term trends - I agree. I would note that over the past year though, that wages have been ticking up for the poorer groups at a solid pace (~4%) and inflation has remained low. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/02/business/economy/wage-growth-economy.html https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/02/business/economy/wage-gro...
wickoff 7y ago
Economic highs seem to be part of the problem. Only about 15% of Americans participate in the stock market, most of the rest of the world doesn't even have the access. The best investment opportunities are being reserved for the elites. 2009 housing crisis resulted in a massive wealth transfer to the people who happened to be in position to take advantage of it. Capital gains are the primary cause of inequality. Technically unemployment is low, but the share of involuntary part-time work has been steadily climbing. Young people are working these low paying dead end jobs just to survive. https://www.businessinsider.com/unemployment-vs-involuntary-part-time-work-underemployment-2019-1 https://www.businessinsider.com/unemployment-vs-involuntary-... 57% of Americans cannot afford a $500 surprise expense. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/most-americans-cant-afford-a-500-emergency-expense/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/most-americans-cant-afford-a-50...
- thrower123 7y ago
  > 57% of Americans cannot afford a $500 surprise expense. This is mostly a self-inflicted problem. A little discipline and saving straightens this out in short order, if people can accept a little inconvenience to live within their means. But people have a shockingly poor understanding of personal economics.
  - mac01021 7y ago
    We didn't choose to be undisciplined and financially illiterate. That came of ignorant or negligent parenting, among other things. (And they didn't choose, for the most part, to be bad parents. It's just that no one taught them to be suitably conscientious parents). Expecting people to be critical thinking and deliberate in the way they conduct their lives, without first conditioning them to be so, has always been and will continue to be unrealistic.
    - malvosenior 7y ago
      Expecting undisciplined and financially illiterate people to have healthy finances and a middle class lifestyle is also unrealistic.

rawrmaan 7y ago

> shrinking CO2 [citation needed] Global CO2 emissions are nowhere near peaking, let alone shrinking.

challenger22 7y ago
I imagine GP was referring to US emissions, considering that his other points were US-centric. You are correct globally. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?tab=chart&time=1751..2016 https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-... https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emis...
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]

masterj 7y ago

> Between the technological advances in solar/wind/batter, renewed interest in nuclear, and shrinking CO2 it seems climate change is well on its way to being solved Do you realize that the most optimistic projections in climate change papers already assume massive improvements in these technologies? They also assume massive carbon extraction technologies working at global scale that don't exist yet. Even these optimistic scenarios have dire consequences, and we're not on track to hitting these at all. If it were a matter of "small improvements in over time", the tech would be sufficient, but it's more like we need to reduce double digit % of CO2 emissions year over year for the next several decades. https://twitter.com/robbie_andrew/status/1129667484527804418 https://twitter.com/robbie_andrew/status/1129667484527804418 Some countries do have declining CO2 emissions, but the ones that matter: China, India do not. Unless dramatic action is taken, we're still a long ways away from a global peak in CO2 emissions.

Consultant32452 7y ago
I saw some of the most recent projections for global GDP impacts due to climate change and it was a fraction of US GDP. That's unfortunate, but much better than I thought. We will make it. US CO2 emissions peaked in around 2007. Per capita CO2 in the US is the lowest it's been in 50 years. We're behind the EU in CO2 reduction, but it is going down. India and China are worrisome, but China is making solar panels as fast is it possibly can. Political priority of millennials was mentioned in this context too. I haven't seen it, is there wide-spread support among Millennials for the trade war with China or other aggressive measures which will move manufacturing to countries with better CO2 regulations?
- masterj 7y ago
  > I saw some of the most recent projections for global GDP impacts due to climate change and it was a fraction of US GDP. That's unfortunate, but much better than I thought. We will make it. Read the assumptions behind those projections and get back to me. They are very, very conservative and should be read as a "best case scenario". Ex: - Economic growth is assumed as part of the model - They look at the marginal economic cost of an additional very hot day today, look at the projected increase, and assume that the impact will scale linearly Even those numbers are damning, and are put forth to help justify the cost of climate action. Reading them as "well that's not that bad" is just way off the mark. > US CO2 emissions peaked in around 2007. Per capita CO2 in the US is the lowest it's been in 50 years. We're behind the EU in CO2 reduction, but it is going down. Not nearly fast enough. Direction is correct, but magnitude is not nearly as big as it needs to be. Assuming that technological progress will make up the difference is magical thinking that the data does not back up. You're hand-waving away what experts are saying based on a gut feeling of "it's not going to be that bad" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias). I recommend reading some papers, especially the NCA, and really sitting with what they say. https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/ https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/

graenxa 7y ago

> it seems climate change is well on its way to being solved This is laughable untrue. EMISSIONS may have peaked (I'm not certain that's the case long-term), there's still plenty of carbon in the atmosphere and continuing to be added. The effects of carbon emissions will continue to compound on themselves[0]. We are still well on our way to >2 degree global warming where island nations will be eaten up by the sea, we will struggle to produce food for the population. Much of earth will become unlivable[1]. The effects of carbon emissions on global climate are not linear. They're exponential. Once the changes start they are impossible to stop. If you think we've got climate change figured out, I really encourage you to read into the subject a little more. It's incredibly serious. We have already started seeing the effects. It's not too late to do something about it, but sitting back and assuming someone else has it figured out it fantastically irresponsible right now. [0] - https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/20/science/earthworms-soil-climate.html https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/20/science/earthworms-soil-c... [1] - http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans.html http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-...

Consultant32452 7y ago
The world is building and deploying solar panels at break-neck speeds. Electric cars and other pollution reduction measures are coming online. I'm well aware of the risks from existing coal burning plants, new plants being built in China/India/etc, shipping, feedback loops with stored CO2 in the ocean, all of it. It's nice to imagine that the world can turn on a dime, but it can't. The global "situation" is going to get worse before it gets better, but the proverbial ball is rolling in the right direction.
- vkou 7y ago
  > The world is building and deploying solar panels at break-neck speeds. It doesn't matter how many solar panels are deployed[1] What matters is how many gasoline cars, coal plants, and gas plants are going dark. Net-over-net, they aren't. [1] And this decade of break-neck speeds got us to... 2% solar deployment. We may hit 5% in another decade - and we need to get emissions to net zero in six years, if we want to avoid catastrophe.

entropea 7y ago

Things are only getting better for those blatantly out of touch with the reality of lower classes. Wages are not rising when you factor in Inflation[1], for some portions of the country even going down in buying power since the early 70's. Nearly half of Americans are poor or low income [2]. [1] https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/08/07/for-most-us-workers-real-wages-have-barely-budged-for-decades/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/08/07/for-most-us... [2] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/census-data-half-of-us-poor-or-low-income/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/census-data-half-of-us-poor-or-...

Consultant32452 7y ago
That buying power you're talking about in the 70s is largely the buying power of white men. Women largely weren't allowed to have real jobs. Minorities either. What do you think that chart looks like when you include their buying power in the 70s? We've also pulled over a billion people out of abject poverty and food scarcity since then. Out of touch with the lower classes indeed.
volkl48 7y ago
Long-term trends - I agree. I would note that over the past year though, that wages have been ticking up for the poorer groups at a solid pace (~4%) and inflation has remained low. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/02/business/economy/wage-growth-economy.html https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/02/business/economy/wage-gro...

wickoff 7y ago

Economic highs seem to be part of the problem. Only about 15% of Americans participate in the stock market, most of the rest of the world doesn't even have the access. The best investment opportunities are being reserved for the elites. 2009 housing crisis resulted in a massive wealth transfer to the people who happened to be in position to take advantage of it. Capital gains are the primary cause of inequality. Technically unemployment is low, but the share of involuntary part-time work has been steadily climbing. Young people are working these low paying dead end jobs just to survive. https://www.businessinsider.com/unemployment-vs-involuntary-part-time-work-underemployment-2019-1 https://www.businessinsider.com/unemployment-vs-involuntary-... 57% of Americans cannot afford a $500 surprise expense. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/most-americans-cant-afford-a-500-emergency-expense/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/most-americans-cant-afford-a-50...

thrower123 7y ago
> 57% of Americans cannot afford a $500 surprise expense. This is mostly a self-inflicted problem. A little discipline and saving straightens this out in short order, if people can accept a little inconvenience to live within their means. But people have a shockingly poor understanding of personal economics.
- mac01021 7y ago
  We didn't choose to be undisciplined and financially illiterate. That came of ignorant or negligent parenting, among other things. (And they didn't choose, for the most part, to be bad parents. It's just that no one taught them to be suitably conscientious parents). Expecting people to be critical thinking and deliberate in the way they conduct their lives, without first conditioning them to be so, has always been and will continue to be unrealistic.
  - malvosenior 7y ago
    Expecting undisciplined and financially illiterate people to have healthy finances and a middle class lifestyle is also unrealistic.