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That's plausible. A good explanation would be that in general consequences back then were a lot more lethal. So the guy who was overconfident beyond their abili
by CPLX 7y ago
That's plausible. A good explanation would be that in general consequences back then were a lot more lethal. So the guy who was overconfident beyond their abilities and rushed into battle, or into a hunting situation, or a conflict with a neighbor, would probably end up dead pretty quickly.
So if they were expressing confidence, and still around, it would likely be pretty directly correlated with actual ability.
It's a bit of a just-so story but it has some resonance to it.
- SerLava 7y agoThat makes sense but maybe we don't need that explanation. It could really be possible that the best-designed decision making robot would use confidence as a heuristic. It would fail in the same ways we fail, but it would probably perform worse in general if you removed that bias.
- sgift 7y agoOr the guy who was good at convincing others that it is foolproof got to live another day if it wasn't while they died. Survival by bullshitting.