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> Re: leverage, at the end of the day, the US doesn't have the capability to do lots of manufacturing. Our primary export to China is cash. We don't have the ma
by Fjolsvith 7y ago
> Re: leverage, at the end of the day, the US doesn't have the capability to do lots of manufacturing. Our primary export to China is cash. We don't have the machinists, don't have the ability to train for the skills needed to manufacture, and will need to buy tooling from China.
This is not a problem for the US. Companies have accelerated a shift of manufacturing to other Asian countries during the last year [1]. As far back as 2013, China was facing an exodus of factories [2].
> Real competitive pressure is decades away.
I doubt this. Although some opinions say China has more leverage than the US [3], "The country’s heavy debts, built up over years of lending used to spur growth, limit its options. If it retaliates against the United States sharply by devaluing its currency or shutting factories crucial to global supply chains, the moves could ricochet and hurt its own newfound wealth.
...
Its tremendous success in nurturing its own homegrown industries, which has helped China’s economy rise up the value chain, has reduced its imports of American goods, giving it fewer items to hit with tariffs." [4].
1. https://www.theepochtimes.com/us-tariffs-adds-financial-pressure-to-foreign-manufacturers-in-china-pushing-them-to-leave_2610229.html https://www.theepochtimes.com/us-tariffs-adds-financial-pres...
2. https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/operations/our-insights/a-new-era-for-manufacturing-in-china https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/operations/our-i...
3. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/05/china-has-more-leverage-thank-you-think-trade-war/589726/ https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/05/ch...
4. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/17/business/china-trade-influence.html https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/17/business/china-trade-infl...
- Fjolsvith 7y agoStarting to look like China is having some supply chain disruption too: https://www.digitalphablet.com/intel-and-qualcomm-also-bans-huawei-stops-supply-with-immediate-effect https://www.digitalphablet.com/intel-and-qualcomm-also-bans-...