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The iPhone has a user interface and a very strong network effect - more users means more apps, which means more users. Self-driving software is fundamentally d

by MarkMc 7y ago

The iPhone has a user interface and a very strong network effect - more users means more apps, which means more users. Self-driving software is fundamentally different. A self-driving Tesla would have no significant UI or network effect, so users could easily switch and Tesla won't have a durable competitive advantage. As soon as there are two robo-taxi services, people will simply choose whichever one is cheaper. It will be a commodity service similar to air travel.

natch 7y ago
We'll see about that. With frequent software updates, you don't really know what Teslas on the road today will be doing 6, 12, 18, 24 months from now.
- hef19898 7y ago
  Which, one could argue, opens up a new front for Tesla on configuration management. This is bad enough for hardware and poses already a problem regarding spare parts. Add the additional layer of software that might or might not work with a certain hardware config and this problem increases exponentially. I'd live to see the Tesla announcement that from today on they will focus exclusively on X because of Y and the measureable and benefits will A, B and C til date D. But all we get is "full self-driving next year" and "fleet of autonomous robo-taxis".
  - natch 7y ago
    Mentioning configuration management, that's something Apple is really good at... it will be fascinating to see what comes out of their efforts eventually. I almost prefer their approach of keeping things under wraps until they are ready, rather than pre-teasing stuff that might happen later than predicted. To be fair to Tesla, they are not saying we will have full self driving next year... it is Elon making a prediction, not a promise, and he couched it many ways. Full self driving for Tesla development cars, basically, and robo-taxis possibly by the end of next year, with safety drivers, if you listen to what he said in response to an audience question... so his actual statements are pretty far removed from what you have dressed up as "quotes" right there.

by MarkMc 7y ago

natch 7y ago

We'll see about that. With frequent software updates, you don't really know what Teslas on the road today will be doing 6, 12, 18, 24 months from now.

hef19898 7y ago
Which, one could argue, opens up a new front for Tesla on configuration management. This is bad enough for hardware and poses already a problem regarding spare parts. Add the additional layer of software that might or might not work with a certain hardware config and this problem increases exponentially. I'd live to see the Tesla announcement that from today on they will focus exclusively on X because of Y and the measureable and benefits will A, B and C til date D. But all we get is "full self-driving next year" and "fleet of autonomous robo-taxis".
- natch 7y ago
  Mentioning configuration management, that's something Apple is really good at... it will be fascinating to see what comes out of their efforts eventually. I almost prefer their approach of keeping things under wraps until they are ready, rather than pre-teasing stuff that might happen later than predicted. To be fair to Tesla, they are not saying we will have full self driving next year... it is Elon making a prediction, not a promise, and he couched it many ways. Full self driving for Tesla development cars, basically, and robo-taxis possibly by the end of next year, with safety drivers, if you listen to what he said in response to an audience question... so his actual statements are pretty far removed from what you have dressed up as "quotes" right there.