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Realistically, the best bet for Europe is to play the part of the USA in the lead-up to WW1. By remaining unaligned with either the axis or the allies until the
by pasabagi 7y ago
Realistically, the best bet for Europe is to play the part of the USA in the lead-up to WW1. By remaining unaligned with either the axis or the allies until the war was essentially decided, they came out of the conflict as the sole winners.
Unfortunately, I expect that the EU will stick with the US, and get dragged into whatever that entails. I hope that the world has changed enough that total war between incumbent and upstart great powers isn't possible - but I don't really see any clear reasons why it shouldn't happen.
What I hope is that China is aware of the parallels between their situation and the situation of pre-WW1 Germany, or pre-WW2 Japan, and goes a different route. If they simply wait, focus on soft power, and ignore all provocations, they'll no doubt end up taking the USA's place.
- bouncycastle 7y agoIn the book, "The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century" by George Friedman, the author predicts that China will start to fragment. Although this hasn't been happening probably because of the increase in strict authoritarian rule. Perhaps this trade war will intensify the pressure until some kind of uprising against the authoritarian rule emerges. Besides, China is more keen on keeping economic harmony than fighting a war. History has shown us what happens when its citizens aren't happy time and again.