5 ms·

One of the things the article names is the challenges caused by snow, ice, etc. I realize I'm in the minority, but I actually think there's lots of conditions

One of the things the article names is the challenges caused by snow, ice, etc. I realize I'm in the minority, but I actually think there's lots of conditions that we shouldn't be driving in -- conditions where the obscured lines of sight, slipperiness of the road, etc, actually mean that we should either be off the road entirely, or traveling at speeds far far below normal. I know this happens, but I honestly believe that it should be far more common -- so common that it would likely take a chunk out of the economy. For instance you're driving on the freeway and it starts to rain -- can you really reduce your speed, and/or leave an extra "car length" between the car in front of you, so that you'll still have time to stop if needed? In my experience, no one else wants to slow down, so it's safer for me to keep up with the slowest traffic than to go what I would now deem a safe speed.

skywhopper 7y ago
I am sure there are plenty of studies out there about this, that would be more useful than speculating. There’s an increased risk, but is it that much greater than typical driving risk? I’m sure more accidents happen in bad weather but I don’t think it’s anywhere near “no one should drive in the rain at night” level of panic you suggest. But regardless of the extreme cases, there are plenty of scenarios in which human drivers may be slightly impaired Which current state of the art autonomous technology is not just impaired, but entirely helpless: simple, common road construction, missing or obscured lane markings, precipitation of any sort, malfunctioning stoplights, delivery trucks or dumpsters in the lane, negotiating a busy parking lot, any atypical road usage of any sort, roundabouts, dirt roads, unmapped roads, stationary objects... Humans can handle all of these situations without special training or instructions.
dbish 7y ago
Absolutely agree. People don't realize how long it takes to stop your car when the roads are wet, and they keep going at high speed. I think the digital speed limit signs that are adjustable should be used more often to greatly reduce speed limits and discourage the standard 55mph+ since the coefficient of friction can be half or less then during dry conditions (not to mention loss of visibility). http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/Mechanics/frictire.html http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/Mechanics/frictir...
- marvin 7y ago
  As a Norwegian who drives in snow at least a few times a year, it’s funny and tragic to see videos of pileups in the US when there’s 5cm of snow on the road. It’s easy to drive safely in snow, assuming you have snow tires, but you do need to slow down a lot. Even here, the first snow of the year results in multiple accidents every year, before people learn to adjust.
  - hvidgaard 7y ago
    In reality, the single thing you need to focus on when driving in show is drastically reduced traction. You know to take corners slower, you know to keep longer distance, and you know to simply always think of the next point where you need to be stationary (or not if on an incline). But you are right, even in countries that get snow every year, there is a week or so of adaption before people relearn it.
  - mbeex 7y ago
    > As a Norwegian I think, Scandinavia is a different story. A closed snow cover at say -5 degrees Celsius is quite safe compared to muddling zero degree conditions with continuous freezing and thawing, producing ice surfaces or slush. The US have this in some states the same way we have it in Central Europe (I am from Germany).
    - marvin 7y ago
      We’ve got this on the west coast where I’m from though :) The coastal climates are normally just a few degrees below zero. Granted, our snow-clearing teams are very effective, so there is rarely deep snow.
  - Wohlf 7y ago
    Note that the US is huge, there are parts that get just as much snow as Norway and others that never see a single flake.
    - kwhitefoot 7y ago
ProblemFactory 7y ago
> One of the things the article names is the challenges caused by snow, ice, etc. I realize I'm in the minority, but I actually think there's lots of conditions that we shouldn't be driving in -- conditions where the obscured lines of sight, slipperiness of the road, etc, actually mean that we should either be off the road entirely, or traveling at speeds far far below normal. I don't think snow, ice and rain will be as problematic as predicted for self-driving cars. Altogether I expect them to perform much better than humans - more so than in clear conditions. Self-driving cars have more sensors than humans - lidar, radar, cameras, possibly at multiple wavelengths, which should let them see through conditions which are difficult for us. And they can control braking, acceleration and perhaps steering on each wheel separately and faster than us, allowing better control in slippery conditions. --- But what I expect the fundamental problem to be is risk vs speed trade-offs. Humans routinely drive beyond safe speeds in all conditions. People tailgate and drive close to the speed limit in snow storms, in a way where stopping in time is impossible if the car in front brakes hard or an obstruction appears from the blur. People drive the city speed limit next to parked cars, unable to stop in time if a child steps out between them. People drive the city speed limit across blind intersections if the crossing traffic has stop signs, assuming that the crossing traffic will give way (but emergency vehicles don't have to give way, there was a bad crash just like this a few months ago in my city). All these are relying on the prior probability of a dangerous situation occurring being low enough to drive at "beyond safe" limits. So self-driving cars will have to choose to match the human behaviour, and accept occasional crashes - or appear infuriatingly slow.
- pas 7y ago
  They can stop much faster even on crowded streets, and while tailgating. I wouldn't mind if it was slow when it knows it cannot stop in time.
mirimir 7y ago
I was thinking basically the same thing. > Krafcik went on to say that the auto industry might never produce a car capable of driving at any time of year, in any weather, under any conditions. “Autonomy will always have some constraints,” he added. I've driven I-95 in heavy rain and/or snow, when stopping at all -- let alone in time to avoid hitting another vehicle -- would have been ~impossible. Plus the fact that visibility was extremely limited. And yet there we were, cruising along at highway speed. I recall thinking "Hey, it's cool, because nobody could stop." But then, there's the occasional mass pileup, after a semi jackknifes.
- kwhitefoot 7y ago
  >> Krafcik went on to say that the auto industry might never produce a car capable of driving at any time of year, in any weather, under any conditions. “Autonomy will always have some constraints,” he added. But who cares? If it can drive in the easy 90% of the time that will be enough of an achievement.
skohan 7y ago
It seems like a good intermediate solution to this problem would be for autonomous vehicles to simply know when it's not possible for them to drive safely, and to require manual control in those scenarios.
- asdff 7y ago
  It's a great solution safety wise but it turns all of this engineering into a colossal waste if it's just for glorified cruise control. You wouldn't be able to hail an empty car. You would have to be sober and awake. You would have to be staring at the road at all times with your hands on your knees, ready to take the helm at a moments notice, because if you are reading a book or something and the car beeps you might not have time to refocus and safely take control of the situation. This is a nightmare scenario for autonomous car investors, and a very likely scenario to appear out of safety first traffic legislation.
  - pas 7y ago
    It'd be a good start nevertheless. The staring part is the problem, the safe disengagement basically. I don't mind if it starts to slow down and beeping because of some imagined or real obstacle. I don't care if it makes others look funny at me (or even honk). But beeping and keeping speed (you have ~1 second to do something to avoid a fatal crash) is ridiculous.

skywhopper 7y ago

I am sure there are plenty of studies out there about this, that would be more useful than speculating. There’s an increased risk, but is it that much greater than typical driving risk? I’m sure more accidents happen in bad weather but I don’t think it’s anywhere near “no one should drive in the rain at night” level of panic you suggest. But regardless of the extreme cases, there are plenty of scenarios in which human drivers may be slightly impaired Which current state of the art autonomous technology is not just impaired, but entirely helpless: simple, common road construction, missing or obscured lane markings, precipitation of any sort, malfunctioning stoplights, delivery trucks or dumpsters in the lane, negotiating a busy parking lot, any atypical road usage of any sort, roundabouts, dirt roads, unmapped roads, stationary objects... Humans can handle all of these situations without special training or instructions.

dbish 7y ago

Absolutely agree. People don't realize how long it takes to stop your car when the roads are wet, and they keep going at high speed. I think the digital speed limit signs that are adjustable should be used more often to greatly reduce speed limits and discourage the standard 55mph+ since the coefficient of friction can be half or less then during dry conditions (not to mention loss of visibility). http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/Mechanics/frictire.html http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/Mechanics/frictir...

marvin 7y ago
As a Norwegian who drives in snow at least a few times a year, it’s funny and tragic to see videos of pileups in the US when there’s 5cm of snow on the road. It’s easy to drive safely in snow, assuming you have snow tires, but you do need to slow down a lot. Even here, the first snow of the year results in multiple accidents every year, before people learn to adjust.
- hvidgaard 7y ago
  In reality, the single thing you need to focus on when driving in show is drastically reduced traction. You know to take corners slower, you know to keep longer distance, and you know to simply always think of the next point where you need to be stationary (or not if on an incline). But you are right, even in countries that get snow every year, there is a week or so of adaption before people relearn it.
- mbeex 7y ago
  > As a Norwegian I think, Scandinavia is a different story. A closed snow cover at say -5 degrees Celsius is quite safe compared to muddling zero degree conditions with continuous freezing and thawing, producing ice surfaces or slush. The US have this in some states the same way we have it in Central Europe (I am from Germany).
  - marvin 7y ago
    We’ve got this on the west coast where I’m from though :) The coastal climates are normally just a few degrees below zero. Granted, our snow-clearing teams are very effective, so there is rarely deep snow.
- Wohlf 7y ago
  Note that the US is huge, there are parts that get just as much snow as Norway and others that never see a single flake.
  - kwhitefoot 7y ago

ProblemFactory 7y ago

> One of the things the article names is the challenges caused by snow, ice, etc. I realize I'm in the minority, but I actually think there's lots of conditions that we shouldn't be driving in -- conditions where the obscured lines of sight, slipperiness of the road, etc, actually mean that we should either be off the road entirely, or traveling at speeds far far below normal. I don't think snow, ice and rain will be as problematic as predicted for self-driving cars. Altogether I expect them to perform much better than humans - more so than in clear conditions. Self-driving cars have more sensors than humans - lidar, radar, cameras, possibly at multiple wavelengths, which should let them see through conditions which are difficult for us. And they can control braking, acceleration and perhaps steering on each wheel separately and faster than us, allowing better control in slippery conditions. --- But what I expect the fundamental problem to be is risk vs speed trade-offs. Humans routinely drive beyond safe speeds in all conditions. People tailgate and drive close to the speed limit in snow storms, in a way where stopping in time is impossible if the car in front brakes hard or an obstruction appears from the blur. People drive the city speed limit next to parked cars, unable to stop in time if a child steps out between them. People drive the city speed limit across blind intersections if the crossing traffic has stop signs, assuming that the crossing traffic will give way (but emergency vehicles don't have to give way, there was a bad crash just like this a few months ago in my city). All these are relying on the prior probability of a dangerous situation occurring being low enough to drive at "beyond safe" limits. So self-driving cars will have to choose to match the human behaviour, and accept occasional crashes - or appear infuriatingly slow.

pas 7y ago
They can stop much faster even on crowded streets, and while tailgating. I wouldn't mind if it was slow when it knows it cannot stop in time.

mirimir 7y ago

I was thinking basically the same thing. > Krafcik went on to say that the auto industry might never produce a car capable of driving at any time of year, in any weather, under any conditions. “Autonomy will always have some constraints,” he added. I've driven I-95 in heavy rain and/or snow, when stopping at all -- let alone in time to avoid hitting another vehicle -- would have been ~impossible. Plus the fact that visibility was extremely limited. And yet there we were, cruising along at highway speed. I recall thinking "Hey, it's cool, because nobody could stop." But then, there's the occasional mass pileup, after a semi jackknifes.

kwhitefoot 7y ago
>> Krafcik went on to say that the auto industry might never produce a car capable of driving at any time of year, in any weather, under any conditions. “Autonomy will always have some constraints,” he added. But who cares? If it can drive in the easy 90% of the time that will be enough of an achievement.

skohan 7y ago

It seems like a good intermediate solution to this problem would be for autonomous vehicles to simply know when it's not possible for them to drive safely, and to require manual control in those scenarios.

asdff 7y ago
It's a great solution safety wise but it turns all of this engineering into a colossal waste if it's just for glorified cruise control. You wouldn't be able to hail an empty car. You would have to be sober and awake. You would have to be staring at the road at all times with your hands on your knees, ready to take the helm at a moments notice, because if you are reading a book or something and the car beeps you might not have time to refocus and safely take control of the situation. This is a nightmare scenario for autonomous car investors, and a very likely scenario to appear out of safety first traffic legislation.
- pas 7y ago
  It'd be a good start nevertheless. The staring part is the problem, the safe disengagement basically. I don't mind if it starts to slow down and beeping because of some imagined or real obstacle. I don't care if it makes others look funny at me (or even honk). But beeping and keeping speed (you have ~1 second to do something to avoid a fatal crash) is ridiculous.