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I don’t understand the obsession or even the belief that fully autonomous driving is around the corner. When has anyone, much less Google, released a product t

I don’t understand the obsession or even the belief that fully autonomous driving is around the corner. When has anyone, much less Google, released a product that worked at such advanced levels from day 1 and starting from no product in the market? They should deploy autonomous cars at limited production scales in specific environments, and build it out from there—but we haven’t even seen that yet.

StreamBright 7y ago
I don’t understand how can anybody take it seriously an approach that relies on statistics for self driving cars. Even if it is 95% correct who would risk getting killed 5% of the time while driving?
- detaro 7y ago
  Of course not 95/5%, but we rely on statistics that all kinds of bad cases will likely not happen every time we enter traffic. What the right statistic is, how to get good data on it, and mentally accept it and the loss of perceived control, that's going to be interesting.
  - tim333 7y ago
    Self driving probably won't really take off until it's clearly safer than human driving. Tesla's iffy autopilot statistics don't really do that yet.
anoncareer0212 7y ago
That's exactly what you're seeing Waymo do, they've been operating a paid taxi service at scale outside Phoenix for 6+ months
- chrischen 7y ago
  Yes so the logical conclusion would be to scale that up, in whatever limited capacity it is currently serving.
  - asdff 7y ago
    How many places in the U.S. have the weather and traffic level of a region outside of phoenix? Maybe a region outside of scottsdale? They would scale if they could but that adds more variables that they haven't felt confident enough to tackle yet, otherwise you would see them scale this up and around the U.S.
    - anoncareer0212 7y ago
      Great example of no true scotsmen - we went from them not existing to "well they're not everywhere, so do they really exist?" in 3 comments
- solidasparagus 7y ago
  Paid taxi service with humans at the wheel. It's not an autonomous taxi service until you can take the driver out.

StreamBright 7y ago

I don’t understand how can anybody take it seriously an approach that relies on statistics for self driving cars. Even if it is 95% correct who would risk getting killed 5% of the time while driving?

detaro 7y ago
Of course not 95/5%, but we rely on statistics that all kinds of bad cases will likely not happen every time we enter traffic. What the right statistic is, how to get good data on it, and mentally accept it and the loss of perceived control, that's going to be interesting.
- tim333 7y ago
  Self driving probably won't really take off until it's clearly safer than human driving. Tesla's iffy autopilot statistics don't really do that yet.

anoncareer0212 7y ago

That's exactly what you're seeing Waymo do, they've been operating a paid taxi service at scale outside Phoenix for 6+ months

chrischen 7y ago
Yes so the logical conclusion would be to scale that up, in whatever limited capacity it is currently serving.
- asdff 7y ago
  How many places in the U.S. have the weather and traffic level of a region outside of phoenix? Maybe a region outside of scottsdale? They would scale if they could but that adds more variables that they haven't felt confident enough to tackle yet, otherwise you would see them scale this up and around the U.S.
  - anoncareer0212 7y ago
    Great example of no true scotsmen - we went from them not existing to "well they're not everywhere, so do they really exist?" in 3 comments
solidasparagus 7y ago
Paid taxi service with humans at the wheel. It's not an autonomous taxi service until you can take the driver out.