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The biggest threat to Google in my opinion would be the possibility that Huawei and China could try to "steal" Android from them. Imagine in 2021 the Chinese g

by yding 7y ago

The biggest threat to Google in my opinion would be the possibility that Huawei and China could try to "steal" Android from them. Imagine in 2021 the Chinese government mandates that every Chinese smartphone manufacturer needs to switch to ChAndroid for all of their product lines, with a single unified app store, whether they sell the phones inside or outside of China. Well, fully half of the top smartphone companies in the world are Chinese. So all of a sudden Google would lose the ability to monetize on almost half of the ecosystem. And if it were open and successful, other Android manufacturers could move over. Samsung would LOVE the ability to get a piece of the search and app revenue on every one of their phones. Right now they're locked out because of Google's licensing agreement for Android, but they must look at how much money Google pays Apple every year to be the default search provider very longingly.

jmull 7y ago
> And if it were open... An OS mandated by the Chinese government. That’s pretty much the opposite open in multiple ways.
- yding 7y ago
  Open in this case meaning open source and open to other people to modify/build upon, like Android is currently. But you're right that the Chinese bureaucracy may not be nimble enough for this kind of move, and might stillborn it by mucking it up with poor decisions.
scarface74 7y ago
Europe forced Google into a consent degree. It isn’t allow to forbid manufacturers from selling non Google versions of Android.
- yding 7y ago
  Correct. So manufacturers should be allowed to sell Android and "Android-compatible" phones simultaneously, whereas before Google forced manufacturers to choose either/or. But that decision is still under appeal as far as I can tell. It also doesn't remove the technical/marketing/user hurdles of getting everyone to port their software over to new APIs, a new app store, and getting the users to get comfortable with a whole new app store and none of the Google apps they expect (like Google Maps, GMail, etc.)
sonnyblarney 7y ago
This is already the case, economically. Android is open source, these vendors are free to fork and do whatever. The lion's haul for Google is not 'app store sales' in China , it's search. Android is not about App Store, that's just a marginal thing - it's about owning and controlling search everywhere. It's a means to extend their primary product. Samsung can make it's own app store tomorrow, but they're not going to get 'Google Search' - which is what people want - so they'll have to do for now. As far as Huawei ... well, open trade can only be had by like economies. If one economy can externalize pollution, labour costs, healthcare, and the other can't - then there cannot be open trade. Same thing for more contentious issues such as IP theft, foreign ownership rules, capital controls, state control of enterprises. Huawei is the example, the tip of the spear. It hardly even matters what the degree of materiality is, that said, there should be not question that there's existential risk with Huawei. The CCP can require Huawei to do whatever, at any time, and Huawei will happily comply. China can't enjoy the advantages of a 'developing economy' while trying to put 1st tier industries form advanced economies out of business, it's not going to sit well. So we saw the big rise of China, now they're slowing down to 'nice growth' instead of crazy growth, they're grabbing land and industry so the West is wary. Meaning the trade rules will change. This is the new normal.
- sanxiyn 7y ago
  > Samsung can make its own app store tomorrow What do you mean, tomorrow? Go to http://samsungapps.com/ http://samsungapps.com/ and start to sell all your apps on Samsung Galaxy Store!

by yding 7y ago

jmull 7y ago

> And if it were open... An OS mandated by the Chinese government. That’s pretty much the opposite open in multiple ways.

yding 7y ago
Open in this case meaning open source and open to other people to modify/build upon, like Android is currently. But you're right that the Chinese bureaucracy may not be nimble enough for this kind of move, and might stillborn it by mucking it up with poor decisions.

scarface74 7y ago

Europe forced Google into a consent degree. It isn’t allow to forbid manufacturers from selling non Google versions of Android.

yding 7y ago
Correct. So manufacturers should be allowed to sell Android and "Android-compatible" phones simultaneously, whereas before Google forced manufacturers to choose either/or. But that decision is still under appeal as far as I can tell. It also doesn't remove the technical/marketing/user hurdles of getting everyone to port their software over to new APIs, a new app store, and getting the users to get comfortable with a whole new app store and none of the Google apps they expect (like Google Maps, GMail, etc.)

sonnyblarney 7y ago

This is already the case, economically. Android is open source, these vendors are free to fork and do whatever. The lion's haul for Google is not 'app store sales' in China , it's search. Android is not about App Store, that's just a marginal thing - it's about owning and controlling search everywhere. It's a means to extend their primary product. Samsung can make it's own app store tomorrow, but they're not going to get 'Google Search' - which is what people want - so they'll have to do for now. As far as Huawei ... well, open trade can only be had by like economies. If one economy can externalize pollution, labour costs, healthcare, and the other can't - then there cannot be open trade. Same thing for more contentious issues such as IP theft, foreign ownership rules, capital controls, state control of enterprises. Huawei is the example, the tip of the spear. It hardly even matters what the degree of materiality is, that said, there should be not question that there's existential risk with Huawei. The CCP can require Huawei to do whatever, at any time, and Huawei will happily comply. China can't enjoy the advantages of a 'developing economy' while trying to put 1st tier industries form advanced economies out of business, it's not going to sit well. So we saw the big rise of China, now they're slowing down to 'nice growth' instead of crazy growth, they're grabbing land and industry so the West is wary. Meaning the trade rules will change. This is the new normal.

sanxiyn 7y ago
> Samsung can make its own app store tomorrow What do you mean, tomorrow? Go to http://samsungapps.com/ http://samsungapps.com/ and start to sell all your apps on Samsung Galaxy Store!