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Five years from now, it will be clear to anyone buying a new car that if it's legacy tech, its resale value is going to be essentially zero. Past that point, th

• jillesvangurp 7y ago
  Yes that's already happening right now. The premise of buying an expensive car is that you can sell it a few years later for a predictable price. Once that price collapses, things get ugly very quickly. Once new buyers suspect there is an issue there, they will be very reluctant. So, the luxury car market will shift to full EV a lot sooner than 2038. IMHO that's happening right now and will largely have happened by 2025 already. It's the rest of the market that will take a bit longer. Not because of a lack of demand but a lack of supply: it will that long to build enough production capacity. And while capacity is limited, the high end of the market is more lucrative to use the capacity for. A Tesla model 3 with 20% margins selling for 40-60K is more interesting than say the equivalent of a Ford Pinto for 15K with 5% margins. The economics of that are different if you have enough capacity to do both of course but that is not the case yet. As long as battery production is a bottleneck, people will be looking to put them in high margin products rather than low margin products.