4 ms·

Where do those figures come from? They appear to be completely inaccurate. Looking here [1], while there has certainly been a reduction in fatalities over the p

Where do those figures come from? They appear to be completely inaccurate. Looking here [1], while there has certainly been a reduction in fatalities over the past 30 years, it's not even close to 10x. Maybe 2x or 4x. As far as miles travelled, there has been at best a 2x increase over the past 30 years, at least for the US[2]. Airline travel certainly has become safer, at least on a per-mile basis, but 100x safer? That's fantasy. 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_accidents_and_incidents#Statistics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_accidents_and_inciden... 2. https://www.bts.gov/content/us-passenger-miles https://www.bts.gov/content/us-passenger-miles

IfOnlyYouKnew 7y ago
Sorry, I continue calculating from 2000 because it's easier, but the errors bars of that are starting to grow. Make it 50 years: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_safety#/media/File:1970-2018_fatalities_per_revenue_passenger_kilometre_in_air_transport_(cropped).png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_safety#/media/File:19... In any case, the larger point should be undeniably clear. Air travel is getting safer and safer.
- jplayer01 7y ago
  You've only established that flying is getting safer. None of this proves or even implies that most of that improvement in safety is because of added features like ATR, especially ones that subtly subvert expectations and remove agency/control from pilots.
  - nick_kline 7y ago
    We need standards for ways to recognize when the computer controls have chosen to override the pilot, why they are doing it, and a way for the human to override. This is hard, not easy, because there are so many things going. One place to look and report back. Tesla has some of these things. It beeps at you when it detects you are about to hit cars in front of you. If you are in traffic and it doesn't see that your lane will be going around say a stopped car in a different lane in traffic you can easily override it. Similarly for the driver can override the autopilot, and because it has a kind of tactile feeling when you use the steering wheel to override the self-driving. Still it's far far from perfect, current evidence being the front end crashes into immobile barriers. But they have these notions built in of feedback, control, override. I expect every self-driving vehicle has something different in how they handle these things. Eventually we'll have standards across car lines. I bet planes are all different with all those amazingly huge number of controls the pilot has to understand.
- FabHK 7y ago
  > since 1970 [to 2018] fatalities per trillion revenue passenger kilometre (RPK) decreased 54 fold from 3,218 to 59.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]

IfOnlyYouKnew 7y ago

Sorry, I continue calculating from 2000 because it's easier, but the errors bars of that are starting to grow. Make it 50 years: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_safety#/media/File:1970-2018_fatalities_per_revenue_passenger_kilometre_in_air_transport_(cropped).png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_safety#/media/File:19... In any case, the larger point should be undeniably clear. Air travel is getting safer and safer.

jplayer01 7y ago
You've only established that flying is getting safer. None of this proves or even implies that most of that improvement in safety is because of added features like ATR, especially ones that subtly subvert expectations and remove agency/control from pilots.
- nick_kline 7y ago
  We need standards for ways to recognize when the computer controls have chosen to override the pilot, why they are doing it, and a way for the human to override. This is hard, not easy, because there are so many things going. One place to look and report back. Tesla has some of these things. It beeps at you when it detects you are about to hit cars in front of you. If you are in traffic and it doesn't see that your lane will be going around say a stopped car in a different lane in traffic you can easily override it. Similarly for the driver can override the autopilot, and because it has a kind of tactile feeling when you use the steering wheel to override the self-driving. Still it's far far from perfect, current evidence being the front end crashes into immobile barriers. But they have these notions built in of feedback, control, override. I expect every self-driving vehicle has something different in how they handle these things. Eventually we'll have standards across car lines. I bet planes are all different with all those amazingly huge number of controls the pilot has to understand.
FabHK 7y ago
> since 1970 [to 2018] fatalities per trillion revenue passenger kilometre (RPK) decreased 54 fold from 3,218 to 59.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]