3 ms·

Timeless Decision Theory Paper Released

46 points by Xelaz 16y ago

noahlt 16y ago
The title of the paper is a bit misleading, and rhetorically clever if intentional. When I read this headline the first time, I parsed it as "Timeless (Decision Theory Paper) Released", so that "timeless" was an adjective describing the (non-specific) "decision theory paper", which had apparently just been released. :-)
- endtime 16y ago
  I don't think it's intentional - TDT is so named with good reason. I'm not sure I can explain why at almost 5AM, but it has to do with sort of treating one-shot games as iterated games, or something roughly similar in spirit to that. One way to think about it is to imagine that you may be a simulation of yourself being used to predict the real you's behavior, and therefore to adopt the behavior that you would want the simulator/predictor to predict from you. Now, if you're not a simulation of yourself, you still need to adopt that decision theory so that when you are simulated, the simulations behave that way. At least, that's how it solves Newcomb's Problem - that's quite possibly not a good overall summary of TDT.
deleted 16y ago
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abecedarius 16y ago
The linked paper, TDT-v01o.pdf, is bit-identical to a draft I downloaded in November. Which is odd since I thought I remembered a few drafty features in it like incomplete references to be filled in later, and it ends with "This manuscript was cut off here" and a one-entry bibliography. Did they link to the wrong version?
- ewjordan 16y ago
  Did they link to the wrong version? It certainly looks like it. Maybe if Eliezer sees this he can post a link to the actual finished copy? FWIW, though, whether finished or not there's a lot of really interesting stuff in there, definitely worth a read, even if you know/care nothing about/for decision theory.
- Korsharat 16y ago
  You do realize that the linked article dates from November the 12th, do you? It linked to the most recent version which was then available.
  - abecedarius 16y ago
    I didn't notice -- thanks. I only skimmed the announcement and got the impression of a polished version ready to submit to some fancy journal. It's interesting as is, anyway, judging by the first half. I'll be getting back to it.
- noglorp 16y ago
  Indeed! This paper seeems to have been so highly anticipated, it was released by those anticipating it before it was finished.
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- endtime 16y ago
  If you read the provided background links, and maybe read up on Newcombe's Problem, you should be okay...I think. If you want to get a better grasp, the standard LW reply is "read the sequences": http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Sequences http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Sequences
eojif 16y ago
Okay, I'll bite. What do I need to read before reading this to get a grasp of what's going on?
- ewjordan 16y ago
  A good start is the LW Decision Theory sequence: http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Decision_theory_%28sequence%29#Sequence http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Decision_theory_%28sequence%2...
- Xelaz 16y ago
  See 'Decision theory' section of this reading list: http://lesswrong.com/lw/2ua/recommended_reading_for_friendly_ai_research/ http://lesswrong.com/lw/2ua/recommended_reading_for_friendly...
cscheid 16y ago
I know I'm not supposed to snark. But teach yourself LaTeX, Mr. Yudkowsky. It'll be a gift to us all.

46 points by Xelaz 16y ago

The title of the paper is a bit misleading, and rhetorically clever if intentional. When I read this headline the first time, I parsed it as "Timeless (Decision Theory Paper) Released", so that "timeless" was an adjective describing the (non-specific) "decision theory paper", which had apparently just been released. :-)

endtime 16y ago
I don't think it's intentional - TDT is so named with good reason. I'm not sure I can explain why at almost 5AM, but it has to do with sort of treating one-shot games as iterated games, or something roughly similar in spirit to that. One way to think about it is to imagine that you may be a simulation of yourself being used to predict the real you's behavior, and therefore to adopt the behavior that you would want the simulator/predictor to predict from you. Now, if you're not a simulation of yourself, you still need to adopt that decision theory so that when you are simulated, the simulations behave that way. At least, that's how it solves Newcomb's Problem - that's quite possibly not a good overall summary of TDT.

deleted 16y ago

[deleted]

abecedarius 16y ago

The linked paper, TDT-v01o.pdf, is bit-identical to a draft I downloaded in November. Which is odd since I thought I remembered a few drafty features in it like incomplete references to be filled in later, and it ends with "This manuscript was cut off here" and a one-entry bibliography. Did they link to the wrong version?

ewjordan 16y ago
Did they link to the wrong version? It certainly looks like it. Maybe if Eliezer sees this he can post a link to the actual finished copy? FWIW, though, whether finished or not there's a lot of really interesting stuff in there, definitely worth a read, even if you know/care nothing about/for decision theory.
Korsharat 16y ago
You do realize that the linked article dates from November the 12th, do you? It linked to the most recent version which was then available.
- abecedarius 16y ago
  I didn't notice -- thanks. I only skimmed the announcement and got the impression of a polished version ready to submit to some fancy journal. It's interesting as is, anyway, judging by the first half. I'll be getting back to it.
noglorp 16y ago
Indeed! This paper seeems to have been so highly anticipated, it was released by those anticipating it before it was finished.

deleted 16y ago

[deleted]

endtime 16y ago
If you read the provided background links, and maybe read up on Newcombe's Problem, you should be okay...I think. If you want to get a better grasp, the standard LW reply is "read the sequences": http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Sequences http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Sequences

eojif 16y ago

Okay, I'll bite. What do I need to read before reading this to get a grasp of what's going on?

ewjordan 16y ago
A good start is the LW Decision Theory sequence: http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Decision_theory_%28sequence%29#Sequence http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Decision_theory_%28sequence%2...
Xelaz 16y ago
See 'Decision theory' section of this reading list: http://lesswrong.com/lw/2ua/recommended_reading_for_friendly_ai_research/ http://lesswrong.com/lw/2ua/recommended_reading_for_friendly...

cscheid 16y ago

I know I'm not supposed to snark. But teach yourself LaTeX, Mr. Yudkowsky. It'll be a gift to us all.