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Average rates appear to be 12.5 per billion miles, and it appears Tesla Autopilot is at 3 for over a billion miles with the system engaged. That's a quarter of

Average rates appear to be 12.5 per billion miles, and it appears Tesla Autopilot is at 3 for over a billion miles with the system engaged. That's a quarter of the usual fatality rate, for anyone counting. Saying "there’s no evidence that it is" isn't true; the above statements (and supporting facts) are evidence.

camjohnson26 7y ago
You aren’t controlling for other factors. Luxury cars and new cars have lower rates.
Someone 7y ago
”That's a quarter of the usual fatality rate” I beg to differ. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transportation_safety_in_the_United_States#United_States_compared_to_other_nations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transportation_safety_in_the_U...: ”Comparing motorways (controlled-access, divided highways) […] the United States had 3.38 road fatalities per 1 billion vehicle-km on its Interstate-type highways, often called freeways” I think that number better reflects where Tesla’s autopilot is used. Also, if you remove motorcycle deaths from that number, I can’t see how the Tesla could be significantly safer, let alone four times less deadly. I think you should also correct for vehicle age (older cars and lighter cars are less safe). You could (and, IMO, should) also correct for vehicle size/price, as Tesla drivers won’t be interested in whether their car is safer than other cars on the road, but in whether it is safer than what they could have bought instead. And of course, there’s the elephant in the room. I expect that Tesla drivers prevented at least half the deadly accidents that would have occurred if Autopilot did all the highway driving.
perl4ever 7y ago
People keep saying (in defense of it) that the Tesla Autopilot does not drive the car for you. As such, it makes no sense to compare its fatality rate to the fatality rate of humans who are driving cars. It seems arguable to me that all those Autopilot fatalities were excess fatalities.

camjohnson26 7y ago

You aren’t controlling for other factors. Luxury cars and new cars have lower rates.

Someone 7y ago

”That's a quarter of the usual fatality rate” I beg to differ. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transportation_safety_in_the_United_States#United_States_compared_to_other_nations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transportation_safety_in_the_U...: ”Comparing motorways (controlled-access, divided highways) […] the United States had 3.38 road fatalities per 1 billion vehicle-km on its Interstate-type highways, often called freeways” I think that number better reflects where Tesla’s autopilot is used. Also, if you remove motorcycle deaths from that number, I can’t see how the Tesla could be significantly safer, let alone four times less deadly. I think you should also correct for vehicle age (older cars and lighter cars are less safe). You could (and, IMO, should) also correct for vehicle size/price, as Tesla drivers won’t be interested in whether their car is safer than other cars on the road, but in whether it is safer than what they could have bought instead. And of course, there’s the elephant in the room. I expect that Tesla drivers prevented at least half the deadly accidents that would have occurred if Autopilot did all the highway driving.

perl4ever 7y ago

People keep saying (in defense of it) that the Tesla Autopilot does not drive the car for you. As such, it makes no sense to compare its fatality rate to the fatality rate of humans who are driving cars. It seems arguable to me that all those Autopilot fatalities were excess fatalities.