2 ms·
I think there's a fun angle we could take on this. One could reasonably argue that large solar deployment in major industrialize countries is unlikely to occur
by icegreentea2 7y ago
I think there's a fun angle we could take on this. One could reasonably argue that large solar deployment in major industrialize countries is unlikely to occur "in time" without some sort of government prodding (of some sort). And when that time comes, it's gonna be big. We're going to need crank out solar panels and wind turbines like mad.
In that context, basically everything we've done so far is basically warm up. Like 2% of US electrical production is from solar. We're gonna need to install like 25-100x the current installation base to do what we want.
A reasonable assumption to make is that by the time the USA gets around to doing that, most other rich countries will be doing that too. This means that global supply is going to be challenged. This means that having the domestic capacity to grow this production is key. This means that being somewhat inefficient at this stage to build knowledge-base and competency in key parts of the supply and operations chain may actually be the long-term optimal solution.
Of course, this is all just conjecture.
- zaroth 7y agoLook at “Swanson’s Law” for insight into solar economics. We’re at the order of magnitude where widespread deployment is inevitable. It took a lot of learning curve to get there, there’s barely another order of magnitude left to be had. There are also the supporting infrastructure that needed to get there, such as battery/storage tech and smarter grids to handle the variable load. Governments around the world have put hundreds of billions of dollars into solar R&D. Last year we had 500GW of solar and 600GW of wind, and added 100GW of solar. We should add more than 100GW of new generation to that this year. It’s pretty good progress! I think global generation is about 15TW, and of course solar doesn’t generate 24/7, so there’s plenty of room to grow.