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This is what launching early looks like. This is just following the mantra of, "if you're not totally embarrassed by your product on Day 1 you waited too long."

by zaroth 7y ago

This is what launching early looks like. This is just following the mantra of, "if you're not totally embarrassed by your product on Day 1 you waited too long." They establish the demand and build anticipation in the product. Then they spend the millions/billions to create it to serve the demand. It seems like a smarter way to do business than the other way around. > Amazing that Solar Roof got so much news coverage for what, in the end, amounted to practically nil. What do you mean "in the end" -- do you think Tesla has or will abandon the solar roof project? Or is it more likely that they lost focus on Solar Roof during the Model 3 ramp, and that they are still doing the R&D to increase manufacturing yield and longevity of the tiles, and hope to ramp up production later this year?

navigatesol 7y ago
>It seems like a smarter way to do business than the other way around To the superfans everything Tesla does is "smarter". >What do you mean "in the end" -- do you think Tesla has or will abandon the solar roof project? Well, according to the financials they are winding down Solar City. So.. Yes?
KirinDave 7y ago
But if only 21 units were connected, doesn't that mean they failed to establish demand? Is there actually a waiting list miles long that they're just not filling?
- zaroth 7y ago
  Yes, there are 10,000 people on a waiting list for the Solar Roof. It's not that people don't want to buy it, Tesla just isn't currently fulfilling orders. EDIT: 11,000 reservations through May 2018 according to Bloomberg, currently it’s $1,400 to reserve.
  - hef19898 7y ago
    Has there been a down payment associated with getting on the waiting list?
  - ckastner 7y ago
    Can you please provide a source for that. That sounds like material information, but I couldn't find any mention of this in their last quarterly report.
    - saisundar 7y ago
      Aforementioned Bloomberg article - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-11-20/inside-elon-musk-s-forgotten-gigafactory-2-in-buffalo https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-11-20/inside-el... Quoting - On the other hand, Tesla had received about 11,000 customer orders for Solar Roof by May, a backlog that was both encouraging and daunting.
- Tuna-Fish 7y ago
  It probably means that they are failing to provide the product. I have no real information, but my best bet for how this situation came about (handful of installations, growing very slowly, yet with no news after a large splash on initial announcement) is that the tiles are not durable enough to last the lifetime of the roof. That would be something that could come out of the left field, surprising them after announcement, and the slow trickle of installations is them attempting to iterate the product and make it better.
ckastner 7y ago
> They establish the demand and build anticipation in the product. Who's left to do that? The article says that they gutted the solar sales team. > Or is it more likely that they lost focus on Solar Roof during the Model 3 ramp, and that they are still doing the R&D to increase manufacturing yield and longevity of the tiles, and hope to ramp up production later this year? Do you have an actual source for that, or is that just a scenario you personally are speculating on? Tesla declined to comment on the article (but for a tiny quote). Not only is that highly unlike Tesla, but if your first assertion is true, ("first establish the demand and build anticipation"), then this silence does not bode well.
- rory096 7y ago
  >Who's left to do that? The article says that they gutted the solar sales team. It's not clear to me that they need a sales team for a product so highly differentiated. If they can deliver a solar roof product as promised, they're no longer in the heavily commoditized traditional photovoltaics market that requires boots on the ground. A wholesale distribution model where they exit the installation business makes sense in that reality — they don't have any real competitive advantage in sales or technical ability in the existing retail market.
- jsight 7y ago
  > Who's left to do that? The article says that they gutted the solar sales team. They now sell them via the stores, the internet, and direct marketing to their car customers. There isn't as much revenue here, but presumably it isn't unprofitable now. Regarding the plans for ramping this year, I have similar concerns to you. Having said that, there are sources for a claim of ramping this year. Quoting Elon Musk on the Q1 2019 earnings call: "And then the Solar Roof tile, we are on Version 3 of the design. That necessarily takes a while to scale up because we have to be confident that the Solar Roof is going to last on the order of 30 years and because the warranty is sort of 20, 25 years and so the rate at which you can iterate on Solar Roof is necessarily slowed down by [indiscernible] which you can do accelerate aging on the roof and we want the installation process to be simple and easy, which is actually the Tesla Buffalo factory a few weeks ago and I was pretty impressed with the team and we are looking forward to scaling that up significantly through the balance of this year and next." https://seekingalpha.com/article/4256560-tesla-inc-tsla-ceo-elon-musk-q1-2019-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single https://seekingalpha.com/article/4256560-tesla-inc-tsla-ceo-... From the same call: "We also have – we are also finding a significant increase in retrofit solar this year, because we have finally refined the product offering to be something that’s extremely compelling and much more cost efficient to deliver and install." Obviously there are no numbers there, so who knows what a "significant increase" is in this statement.
deleted 7y ago
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by zaroth 7y ago

navigatesol 7y ago

>It seems like a smarter way to do business than the other way around To the superfans everything Tesla does is "smarter". >What do you mean "in the end" -- do you think Tesla has or will abandon the solar roof project? Well, according to the financials they are winding down Solar City. So.. Yes?

KirinDave 7y ago

But if only 21 units were connected, doesn't that mean they failed to establish demand? Is there actually a waiting list miles long that they're just not filling?

zaroth 7y ago
Yes, there are 10,000 people on a waiting list for the Solar Roof. It's not that people don't want to buy it, Tesla just isn't currently fulfilling orders. EDIT: 11,000 reservations through May 2018 according to Bloomberg, currently it’s $1,400 to reserve.
- hef19898 7y ago
  Has there been a down payment associated with getting on the waiting list?
- ckastner 7y ago
  Can you please provide a source for that. That sounds like material information, but I couldn't find any mention of this in their last quarterly report.
  - saisundar 7y ago
    Aforementioned Bloomberg article - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-11-20/inside-elon-musk-s-forgotten-gigafactory-2-in-buffalo https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-11-20/inside-el... Quoting - On the other hand, Tesla had received about 11,000 customer orders for Solar Roof by May, a backlog that was both encouraging and daunting.
Tuna-Fish 7y ago
It probably means that they are failing to provide the product. I have no real information, but my best bet for how this situation came about (handful of installations, growing very slowly, yet with no news after a large splash on initial announcement) is that the tiles are not durable enough to last the lifetime of the roof. That would be something that could come out of the left field, surprising them after announcement, and the slow trickle of installations is them attempting to iterate the product and make it better.

ckastner 7y ago

> They establish the demand and build anticipation in the product. Who's left to do that? The article says that they gutted the solar sales team. > Or is it more likely that they lost focus on Solar Roof during the Model 3 ramp, and that they are still doing the R&D to increase manufacturing yield and longevity of the tiles, and hope to ramp up production later this year? Do you have an actual source for that, or is that just a scenario you personally are speculating on? Tesla declined to comment on the article (but for a tiny quote). Not only is that highly unlike Tesla, but if your first assertion is true, ("first establish the demand and build anticipation"), then this silence does not bode well.

rory096 7y ago
>Who's left to do that? The article says that they gutted the solar sales team. It's not clear to me that they need a sales team for a product so highly differentiated. If they can deliver a solar roof product as promised, they're no longer in the heavily commoditized traditional photovoltaics market that requires boots on the ground. A wholesale distribution model where they exit the installation business makes sense in that reality — they don't have any real competitive advantage in sales or technical ability in the existing retail market.
jsight 7y ago
> Who's left to do that? The article says that they gutted the solar sales team. They now sell them via the stores, the internet, and direct marketing to their car customers. There isn't as much revenue here, but presumably it isn't unprofitable now. Regarding the plans for ramping this year, I have similar concerns to you. Having said that, there are sources for a claim of ramping this year. Quoting Elon Musk on the Q1 2019 earnings call: "And then the Solar Roof tile, we are on Version 3 of the design. That necessarily takes a while to scale up because we have to be confident that the Solar Roof is going to last on the order of 30 years and because the warranty is sort of 20, 25 years and so the rate at which you can iterate on Solar Roof is necessarily slowed down by [indiscernible] which you can do accelerate aging on the roof and we want the installation process to be simple and easy, which is actually the Tesla Buffalo factory a few weeks ago and I was pretty impressed with the team and we are looking forward to scaling that up significantly through the balance of this year and next." https://seekingalpha.com/article/4256560-tesla-inc-tsla-ceo-elon-musk-q1-2019-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single https://seekingalpha.com/article/4256560-tesla-inc-tsla-ceo-... From the same call: "We also have – we are also finding a significant increase in retrofit solar this year, because we have finally refined the product offering to be something that’s extremely compelling and much more cost efficient to deliver and install." Obviously there are no numbers there, so who knows what a "significant increase" is in this statement.

deleted 7y ago

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