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How good, realistically, are our climate models? What are the probabilities of the various outcomes if current trends continue? It would be really interesting

How good, realistically, are our climate models? What are the probabilities of the various outcomes if current trends continue? It would be really interesting to know if the research has been verified by any independent researchers not employed in academia - ideally from the world of finance, where evaluating correctness of methodology and models is absolutely crucial. Ideally they would also be highly sceptical of the predictions and have a pro-economic growth bias.

paulryanrogers 7y ago
Why is a pro-economic growth bias relevant?
- agent008t 7y ago
  Because they would likely have a higher hurdle for being convinced that we may indeed need to sacrifice economic growth to change the course of humanity's future for the better. If they do their research and are convinced, it would mean a lot more to me than if someone who supported the conclusions of environmentalists' apriori reaches the same conclusion. If there is any such bias among climate scientists (e.g. people that go into climate science already hold certain beliefs about what should be done politically, and inadvertently favour the models / parameters / methodology that support their beliefs), this would help mitigate it to some extent.
viraptor 7y ago
> ideally from the world of finance, where evaluating correctness of methodology and models is absolutely crucial Isn't it only crucial to the group doing the analysis? Financial world thrives on information asymmetry. If you have more information / better models, why would you share it publically instead of extract as much as you can from that difference? (Unless it's a one-off invest/short-publish-benefit case)
- agent008t 7y ago
  Not sure I understand what you are asking. What I mean is that in (non-academic, applied) finance - unlike many other disciplines - you relatively quickly get feedback on the predictive power of your models. Like climate, finance is also a complex system. You have to always be critical of the steps you took to arrive at your model and focus on your research methodology. Therefore I would trust someone who was successful in financial model research to perform that "audit" of sorts. Someone like David E. Shaw, for example.
burfog 7y ago
The financial industry is strongly biased in favor of carbon trading. You see, this becomes like trading stocks and futures and bonds. Hedge funds, high-speed traders, and every other kind of parasite can go do their thing to extract wealth.
- agent008t 7y ago
  Well, assuming that something must be done, carbon trading does seem like a sensible solution. But I am more interested in the forecast/outlook rather than mitigation options, hence the requirement for whoever is looking at it to be a sceptic apriori.

paulryanrogers 7y ago

Why is a pro-economic growth bias relevant?

agent008t 7y ago
Because they would likely have a higher hurdle for being convinced that we may indeed need to sacrifice economic growth to change the course of humanity's future for the better. If they do their research and are convinced, it would mean a lot more to me than if someone who supported the conclusions of environmentalists' apriori reaches the same conclusion. If there is any such bias among climate scientists (e.g. people that go into climate science already hold certain beliefs about what should be done politically, and inadvertently favour the models / parameters / methodology that support their beliefs), this would help mitigate it to some extent.

viraptor 7y ago

> ideally from the world of finance, where evaluating correctness of methodology and models is absolutely crucial Isn't it only crucial to the group doing the analysis? Financial world thrives on information asymmetry. If you have more information / better models, why would you share it publically instead of extract as much as you can from that difference? (Unless it's a one-off invest/short-publish-benefit case)

agent008t 7y ago
Not sure I understand what you are asking. What I mean is that in (non-academic, applied) finance - unlike many other disciplines - you relatively quickly get feedback on the predictive power of your models. Like climate, finance is also a complex system. You have to always be critical of the steps you took to arrive at your model and focus on your research methodology. Therefore I would trust someone who was successful in financial model research to perform that "audit" of sorts. Someone like David E. Shaw, for example.

burfog 7y ago

The financial industry is strongly biased in favor of carbon trading. You see, this becomes like trading stocks and futures and bonds. Hedge funds, high-speed traders, and every other kind of parasite can go do their thing to extract wealth.

agent008t 7y ago
Well, assuming that something must be done, carbon trading does seem like a sensible solution. But I am more interested in the forecast/outlook rather than mitigation options, hence the requirement for whoever is looking at it to be a sceptic apriori.