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The author uses the Israeli parole board study as an example supporting his case, but doesn't mention that the study failed to account for other factors that mi

The author uses the Israeli parole board study as an example supporting his case, but doesn't mention that the study failed to account for other factors that might affect parole decisions. When other researchers took a closer look, it turned out that in each session, prisoners without attorneys (who are less likely to be granted parole) were scheduled last, just before the breaks. After accounting for this and several smaller factors, the original conclusion could no longer be supported. [1] [1] https://www.pnas.org/content/108/42/E833.full https://www.pnas.org/content/108/42/E833.full

yig 7y ago
Ego Depletion, which is related, failed to replicate in a pre-registered, 23-lab, 2141-participant replication study. [1] [1] https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1745691616652873 https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1745691616652873
- danieltillett 7y ago
  Almost nothing is psychology replicates apart from g.
  - _the_inflator 7y ago
    Taleb has you covered: https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39 https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-...
    - challenger22 7y ago
      The criticisms he makes against IQ are pretty easy to argue against. 1. So it looks like any correlation against IQ is strongest at IQ's < 100. This is a fine conclusion and shows an important result- as your IQ increases, your life outcomes are more dependent on other personality factors and choices. He knocks this as a "no correlation existing" for high IQ's, even when you can see the damn correlation on his scatterplots (even after he blacks out large portions of them). 2. For income vs. IQ, there will be high variance. This is obvious. 3. He intentionally omits R-values for many of his plots to hide their predictive power. Even smaller R-values, given a large sample size and good p-test, show the power of a correlation.
    - danieltillett 7y ago
      I wouldn’t use Taleb if you want to be taken seriously in the area of psychology.
- criddell 7y ago
  What's the difference ego depletion and decision fatigue?
windexh8er 7y ago
I'm about halfway through "When, The Scientific Secrets of Perfect Timing" and it references many studies and topics relating to, obviously, timing. Many hospitals have implemented mandatory break schedules to combat this. An interesting read so far, recommended if you enjoy the linked article from the HN post. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/35412097-when https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/35412097-when And direct from the author some insights from the book: 'Afternoons are the Bermuda Triangles of our days. Across many domains, the trough represents a danger zone for productivity, ethics, and health. Anesthesia is one example. Researchers at Duke Medical Center reviewed about 90,000 surgeries at the hospital and identified what they called “anesthetic adverse events”— either mistakes anesthesiologists made, harm they caused to patients, or both. Adverse events were significantly “more frequent for cases starting during the 3 p.m. and 4 p.m. hours.” The probability of a problem at 9 a.m. was about 1 percent. At 4 p.m., 4.2 percent. In other words, the chance of something going awry was four times greater during the trough than during the peak. On actual harm (not only a slip up but also something that hurts the patient), the probability at 8 a.m. was 0.3 percent — three-tenths of one percent. But at 3 p.m., the probability was 1 percent — one in every one hundred cases, a threefold increase. Afternoon circadian lows, the researchers concluded, impair physician vigilance and “affect human performance of complex tasks such as those required in anesthesia care.”' https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/youre-more-likely-screw-up-afternoon-heres-how-stop-daniel-pink https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/youre-more-likely-screw-up-af...
- kazagistar 7y ago
  The next step though would be individuation of results. Are these consistent, or is there some minority that has the opposite results?
- chrisweekly 7y ago
  Good call, "When..." is an excellent book. In a related vein, "Algorithms to Live By" is useful and interesting.
- retiredcoder 7y ago
  Quite interesting links here! Ps: I, on the other hand, am really more productive and attentive to details after lunch and specially after 2pm. Mornings for me are just good for physical activities..
wycy 7y ago
I was just listening to the audiobook “Thinking Fast & Slow” a few hours ago which references this study and specifically notes that the researchers couldn’t find any other factors and that the order of the prisoners review was random. Weird discrepancy.
- syndev 7y ago
  FYI regarding that book: https://retractionwatch.com/2017/02/20/placed-much-faith-underpowered-studies-nobel-prize-winner-admits-mistakes/ https://retractionwatch.com/2017/02/20/placed-much-faith-und...
  - Angostura 7y ago
    It would be great if he would publish an amended second edition - unless he already has.
    - criddell 7y ago
      On that page he wrote: > I am still attached to every study that I cited, and have not unbelieved them, to use Daniel Gilbert’s phrase. I would be happy to see each of them replicated in a large sample. The lesson I have learned, however, is that authors who review a field should be wary of using memorable results of underpowered studies as evidence for their claims. So it sounds like stands by the claims in the book. If that's the case, then I'm not sure what would be in a second edition.
- chrisweekly 7y ago
  I liked "Thinking Fast and Slow", but would recommend "Hare Brain, Tortoise Mind" above it in this space, as better bang for the buck (wrt time investment / value derived).
bubblewrap 7y ago
Also had to think about that. Maybe similar factors could apply to doctors? For example patients with more severe illness could be more eager to see the doctor asap, and therefore be more likely to take the morning appointments, skipping work? Patients will probably also worry about doctors getting tired, and try to schedule accordingly. I know I do worry about that kind of thing. No doubt doctors also do get tired, but perhaps, like the judges, they also arrange their schedules accordingly?

yig 7y ago

Ego Depletion, which is related, failed to replicate in a pre-registered, 23-lab, 2141-participant replication study. [1] [1] https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1745691616652873 https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1745691616652873

danieltillett 7y ago
Almost nothing is psychology replicates apart from g.
- _the_inflator 7y ago
  Taleb has you covered: https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39 https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-...
  - challenger22 7y ago
    The criticisms he makes against IQ are pretty easy to argue against. 1. So it looks like any correlation against IQ is strongest at IQ's < 100. This is a fine conclusion and shows an important result- as your IQ increases, your life outcomes are more dependent on other personality factors and choices. He knocks this as a "no correlation existing" for high IQ's, even when you can see the damn correlation on his scatterplots (even after he blacks out large portions of them). 2. For income vs. IQ, there will be high variance. This is obvious. 3. He intentionally omits R-values for many of his plots to hide their predictive power. Even smaller R-values, given a large sample size and good p-test, show the power of a correlation.
  - danieltillett 7y ago
    I wouldn’t use Taleb if you want to be taken seriously in the area of psychology.
criddell 7y ago
What's the difference ego depletion and decision fatigue?

windexh8er 7y ago

I'm about halfway through "When, The Scientific Secrets of Perfect Timing" and it references many studies and topics relating to, obviously, timing. Many hospitals have implemented mandatory break schedules to combat this. An interesting read so far, recommended if you enjoy the linked article from the HN post. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/35412097-when https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/35412097-when And direct from the author some insights from the book: 'Afternoons are the Bermuda Triangles of our days. Across many domains, the trough represents a danger zone for productivity, ethics, and health. Anesthesia is one example. Researchers at Duke Medical Center reviewed about 90,000 surgeries at the hospital and identified what they called “anesthetic adverse events”— either mistakes anesthesiologists made, harm they caused to patients, or both. Adverse events were significantly “more frequent for cases starting during the 3 p.m. and 4 p.m. hours.” The probability of a problem at 9 a.m. was about 1 percent. At 4 p.m., 4.2 percent. In other words, the chance of something going awry was four times greater during the trough than during the peak. On actual harm (not only a slip up but also something that hurts the patient), the probability at 8 a.m. was 0.3 percent — three-tenths of one percent. But at 3 p.m., the probability was 1 percent — one in every one hundred cases, a threefold increase. Afternoon circadian lows, the researchers concluded, impair physician vigilance and “affect human performance of complex tasks such as those required in anesthesia care.”' https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/youre-more-likely-screw-up-afternoon-heres-how-stop-daniel-pink https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/youre-more-likely-screw-up-af...

kazagistar 7y ago
The next step though would be individuation of results. Are these consistent, or is there some minority that has the opposite results?
chrisweekly 7y ago
Good call, "When..." is an excellent book. In a related vein, "Algorithms to Live By" is useful and interesting.
retiredcoder 7y ago
Quite interesting links here! Ps: I, on the other hand, am really more productive and attentive to details after lunch and specially after 2pm. Mornings for me are just good for physical activities..

wycy 7y ago

I was just listening to the audiobook “Thinking Fast & Slow” a few hours ago which references this study and specifically notes that the researchers couldn’t find any other factors and that the order of the prisoners review was random. Weird discrepancy.

syndev 7y ago
FYI regarding that book: https://retractionwatch.com/2017/02/20/placed-much-faith-underpowered-studies-nobel-prize-winner-admits-mistakes/ https://retractionwatch.com/2017/02/20/placed-much-faith-und...
- Angostura 7y ago
  It would be great if he would publish an amended second edition - unless he already has.
  - criddell 7y ago
    On that page he wrote: > I am still attached to every study that I cited, and have not unbelieved them, to use Daniel Gilbert’s phrase. I would be happy to see each of them replicated in a large sample. The lesson I have learned, however, is that authors who review a field should be wary of using memorable results of underpowered studies as evidence for their claims. So it sounds like stands by the claims in the book. If that's the case, then I'm not sure what would be in a second edition.
chrisweekly 7y ago
I liked "Thinking Fast and Slow", but would recommend "Hare Brain, Tortoise Mind" above it in this space, as better bang for the buck (wrt time investment / value derived).

bubblewrap 7y ago

Also had to think about that. Maybe similar factors could apply to doctors? For example patients with more severe illness could be more eager to see the doctor asap, and therefore be more likely to take the morning appointments, skipping work? Patients will probably also worry about doctors getting tired, and try to schedule accordingly. I know I do worry about that kind of thing. No doubt doctors also do get tired, but perhaps, like the judges, they also arrange their schedules accordingly?