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This was a hugely helpful insight for me. First, because I found it much easier to accept "deliberating has a cost, factor that in" than a generalized claim of

This was a hugely helpful insight for me. First, because I found it much easier to accept "deliberating has a cost, factor that in" than a generalized claim of "stop thinking so much". Second, because thinking more really does help sometimes. "Go with your gut" doesn't sit well with me; every once so often I think about a decision and notice that I've made some major oversight in my first assessment. Aiming for the 'right' amount of thinking, as a function of stakes and urgency and complexity, has been much better for controlling overthinking while still catching those mistakes.

mercer 7y ago
I think going with your gut can be a fine solution, but it's probably worth assessing how well your gut has served you historically. For me, my gut has generally been more right than my over-analytical mind. But I have a number of friends where I think it's the other way around.
- Bartweiss 7y ago
  This definitely seems like a "competing needs" thing. People repeat the advice that helps them, but different people need to adjust in different directions. "Look before you leap" versus "he who hesitates", I suppose. There's an interesting result from studying people's prediction accuracy in which they improve simply by being asked to think about their answers and whether they're sure. For me, overthinking often leads me to explain away 'irrational' reactions that were quite accurate, but taking at least one extra look to say "has my first reaction missed something fundamental" is a lifesaver.
the_greyd 7y ago
I've never really understood "Go with your gut", because my gut is still my brain.. I would be curious if individuals have a process for thinking. A kind of structured thinking, instead of all abstract. I've noticed that it's really important giving my abstract thoughts a solid form, either by writing them down or speaking in a conversation (even to myself). Helps a lot in refining them, and figuring out what exactly am I aiming towards.
- AlexCoventry 7y ago
  > my gut is still my brain.. I think they mean deciding on the basis of preverbal emotional reactions, rather than on explicit values. That decision could be in reaction to outcomes you've already put a lot of thought into predicting, though.

mercer 7y ago

I think going with your gut can be a fine solution, but it's probably worth assessing how well your gut has served you historically. For me, my gut has generally been more right than my over-analytical mind. But I have a number of friends where I think it's the other way around.

Bartweiss 7y ago
This definitely seems like a "competing needs" thing. People repeat the advice that helps them, but different people need to adjust in different directions. "Look before you leap" versus "he who hesitates", I suppose. There's an interesting result from studying people's prediction accuracy in which they improve simply by being asked to think about their answers and whether they're sure. For me, overthinking often leads me to explain away 'irrational' reactions that were quite accurate, but taking at least one extra look to say "has my first reaction missed something fundamental" is a lifesaver.

the_greyd 7y ago

I've never really understood "Go with your gut", because my gut is still my brain.. I would be curious if individuals have a process for thinking. A kind of structured thinking, instead of all abstract. I've noticed that it's really important giving my abstract thoughts a solid form, either by writing them down or speaking in a conversation (even to myself). Helps a lot in refining them, and figuring out what exactly am I aiming towards.

AlexCoventry 7y ago
> my gut is still my brain.. I think they mean deciding on the basis of preverbal emotional reactions, rather than on explicit values. That decision could be in reaction to outcomes you've already put a lot of thought into predicting, though.