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So I take it your view is we should not plan / discuss how to handle it? Take it on good faith that it'll be fine?

crazygringo 7y ago
My view is that the loss of driving jobs can be handled normally, via existing free market and education institutions -- that it's no different from the loss of other job categories over the past 50 years. That this isn't special, that we're not "on the cusp of some pretty hairy water", but rather that this is just par for the course. I just don't see any statistics that suggest the scale or rate will be anything close to larger/faster than our economy can normally handle. If someone can show those comparative statistics exist, then I'll change my mind.
- asdkhadsj 7y ago
  That's fair. It would be interesting to have data that compares all of the job classes out there and the number of workers out there, against the worker education. Ie, how many millions of food service workers, manual laborers, and drivers (for trucks, taxis, etc) could move upward in career depth? Where would we expect them to be absorbed? I definitely think this is hairy waters, in the sense that I want to see studies done. Planning for how it can be handled. Etc. Calling it fine in my view would suggest we don't even need to study it - which seems unfair. This degree of automation, assuming we can get over some AI hurdles of course, seems unparalleled - at least enough to warrant real data.
  - crazygringo 7y ago
    Just a quick point: they don't necessarily need to move upward. They can move laterally. They can work in package delivery, in restaurants, at Starbucks, in health care, in tourism, in solar panel and home battery installation, in environment cleanup sites, in converting homes to greater energy efficiency, and so on. Honestly a lot of the new jobs 20 years from now we have a hard time guessing what they'll even be (if you magically know, you'll make billions investing), which makes "planning" for it a bit handwavy anyways. (Remember, nobody "planned" for web developers to be an exploding new career.)
    - asdkhadsj 7y ago
      Well that goes back to the original point though. Which is, that no education jobs will theoretically dwindle. If we have machines capable of handling all, repeat all no education manual labor jobs; things like picking fruit, delivering boxes, etc. Where will those people go? They will be forced to acquire more education or skill oriented trades. The concern is if humanity will be able to adapt to something it has never seen. Where creativity and thinking oriented jobs become more and more required.

My view is that the loss of driving jobs can be handled normally, via existing free market and education institutions -- that it's no different from the loss of other job categories over the past 50 years. That this isn't special, that we're not "on the cusp of some pretty hairy water", but rather that this is just par for the course. I just don't see any statistics that suggest the scale or rate will be anything close to larger/faster than our economy can normally handle. If someone can show those comparative statistics exist, then I'll change my mind.

asdkhadsj 7y ago
That's fair. It would be interesting to have data that compares all of the job classes out there and the number of workers out there, against the worker education. Ie, how many millions of food service workers, manual laborers, and drivers (for trucks, taxis, etc) could move upward in career depth? Where would we expect them to be absorbed? I definitely think this is hairy waters, in the sense that I want to see studies done. Planning for how it can be handled. Etc. Calling it fine in my view would suggest we don't even need to study it - which seems unfair. This degree of automation, assuming we can get over some AI hurdles of course, seems unparalleled - at least enough to warrant real data.
- crazygringo 7y ago
  Just a quick point: they don't necessarily need to move upward. They can move laterally. They can work in package delivery, in restaurants, at Starbucks, in health care, in tourism, in solar panel and home battery installation, in environment cleanup sites, in converting homes to greater energy efficiency, and so on. Honestly a lot of the new jobs 20 years from now we have a hard time guessing what they'll even be (if you magically know, you'll make billions investing), which makes "planning" for it a bit handwavy anyways. (Remember, nobody "planned" for web developers to be an exploding new career.)
  - asdkhadsj 7y ago
    Well that goes back to the original point though. Which is, that no education jobs will theoretically dwindle. If we have machines capable of handling all, repeat all no education manual labor jobs; things like picking fruit, delivering boxes, etc. Where will those people go? They will be forced to acquire more education or skill oriented trades. The concern is if humanity will be able to adapt to something it has never seen. Where creativity and thinking oriented jobs become more and more required.