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And my favorite comment from there: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16399944 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16399944 And a part from Wikipedia: ht
by acqq 7y ago
And my favorite comment from there:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16399944 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16399944
And a part from Wikipedia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania#Modern_views https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania#Modern_views
"Research into tulip mania since then, especially by proponents of the efficient-market hypothesis,[17] suggests that his story was incomplete and inaccurate."
So there is an actual agenda ("the efficient-market hypothesis" and obviously also the political forces with anti-regulatory ideologies) behind many of the claims that the bubbles aren't anything to worry about, or that some specific even hasn't happened.
In the case of Anne Goldgar's work, claiming that she found only 37 people who paid for a bulb more than "quite good yearly wage" of that time doesn't disprove that many poorer people could have spent less and were actually bankrupt, but that their fate wasn't recorded the way it was for the highest transactions and their initiators. It should not be surprising that the 37 richest people involved (which is obvious because the poorer couldn't have even invested that much) weren't hit too hard with a single speculation.
- spaced-out 7y ago>disprove that many poorer people could have spent less and were actually bankrupt, but that their fate wasn't recorded the way it was for the highest transactions and their initiators. Sure, we can spend all day speculating about records may have existed but were lost. I mean, there are no evidence of alien involvement, maybe those records were lost too? It's also possible that the Tulip bubble was both short-lived and not very widespread and is just one of those stories that keeps getting bigger the more it gets re-told.
- acqq 7y ago> just one of those stories that keeps getting bigger There are apparently still records of 37 transactions paying more than a what was then "good yearly wage" for a bulb. Moreover, from another history book, after the "crash" "in Haarlem, the city with the biggest volume of tulip bulb trading and thus the city with the most problems" ... "the local court there refused to hear disputes relating to the tulip trade." That obviously lowered the chance of having the records about the direct effects of the crash.