3 ms·

Bezos brings land area into it because assuming a 3% growth in energy usage per year, as has been the historical trend, we will need to cover the earth in solar

Bezos brings land area into it because assuming a 3% growth in energy usage per year, as has been the historical trend, we will need to cover the earth in solar panels in 200 years. Something he doesn’t touch on is fission/fusion instead of solar, so I am curious about how that changes the calculus.

icegreentea2 7y ago
I mean, that's also fantastical. Let's plan for 100+ years of linear growth, while side stepping the 50-100 year looming crisis. Like I admire the longterm vision. I'm also a giant space nerd and think this is soooo coool. I just feel... bleh about it. I mean, I guess if we get better space launch and space fabrication, we might able to get some sun shields in place at a reasonable time.
- aetherson 7y ago
  Exponential growth, not linear.
aidenn0 7y ago
3% energy growth is unsustainable in the long run; at that rate we are about 1000 years from using more energy per year than the sun emits in totality: 2015 energy usage 110PWh for the entire year[1] That works out to ~1.8e13 W average power. Total output for the sun is about 4e26 W[2] This works out to about 44 doublings, and 3% growth is a doubling every 24 years which means we need to surpass Kardashev II in 1000 years. 1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption 2: https://hypertextbook.com/facts/1999/MatthewTsang.shtml https://hypertextbook.com/facts/1999/MatthewTsang.shtml
- philwelch 7y ago
  1000 years is a long time. Might help to have more people around to help figure out interstellar travel.
philwelch 7y ago
I recognized that as well, but then I realized that "covering the earth in solar panels" is pretty much a dumbed-down description of Type I on the Kardashev scale, which we would eventually, inevitably reach regardless of how we generate power.

icegreentea2 7y ago

I mean, that's also fantastical. Let's plan for 100+ years of linear growth, while side stepping the 50-100 year looming crisis. Like I admire the longterm vision. I'm also a giant space nerd and think this is soooo coool. I just feel... bleh about it. I mean, I guess if we get better space launch and space fabrication, we might able to get some sun shields in place at a reasonable time.

aetherson 7y ago
Exponential growth, not linear.

aidenn0 7y ago

3% energy growth is unsustainable in the long run; at that rate we are about 1000 years from using more energy per year than the sun emits in totality: 2015 energy usage 110PWh for the entire year[1] That works out to ~1.8e13 W average power. Total output for the sun is about 4e26 W[2] This works out to about 44 doublings, and 3% growth is a doubling every 24 years which means we need to surpass Kardashev II in 1000 years. 1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption 2: https://hypertextbook.com/facts/1999/MatthewTsang.shtml https://hypertextbook.com/facts/1999/MatthewTsang.shtml

philwelch 7y ago
1000 years is a long time. Might help to have more people around to help figure out interstellar travel.

philwelch 7y ago

I recognized that as well, but then I realized that "covering the earth in solar panels" is pretty much a dumbed-down description of Type I on the Kardashev scale, which we would eventually, inevitably reach regardless of how we generate power.