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We're talking about grain combines that are 50 feet wide and cost half a million dollars new, that are GPS-guided, and that have multiple advanced control syste

We're talking about grain combines that are 50 feet wide and cost half a million dollars new, that are GPS-guided, and that have multiple advanced control systems that optimize rotor speeds, tractor speed, blade height, and dozens of other settings multiple times per second. If you're a grain farmer in the Midwest then you own several or dozens of these machines, they're financed, and you hedge your financing against future commodity prices. It's a business that lends itself to massive economies of scale. A hard-working pure-hearted American farmer with a tractor from 1990 and a little bit of grit is going to be real hard-pressed to compete. Not really a matter of sucking it up and slumming it, unfortunately.

tomcam 7y ago
Do you have a blog or YT channel or something where you discuss these issues more? I’d love to follow you.
- leroy_masochist 7y ago
  No but thank you for saying that!
dragontamer 7y ago
I'm not fully up to date on farming technology, but you bring up a good point. I think most laypeople don't realize just how complicated these machines are. Here's a lettuce transplanter: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQ1u9IwJrs8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQ1u9IwJrs8 It can transplant a lot of lettuce in a very quick amount of time, with a crew of 3 (1 driver + 2 workers on the back). You're not going to beat this plant-tape methodology with 90s era technology.
- jelliclesfarm 7y ago
  That plant tape technology was developed in Spain and acquired by a Salinas lettuce company. They still struggle with margins due to CA labour costs and regulations. At some point, even economies of scale will totter when things become too big. In Ag, the better you do, you lose..because quantity creates glut and farmers are at the bottom of the supply chain of cheap food. Any increase in food prices would only benefit the top. But with new tech, the farmers are bearing the burden of new technology cost without seeing an increase in revenue. This has already led to the demise of the dairy industry. Ditto with grain and commodity crops. These are also heavily subsidized. Cheap food is subsidized by tax payers and farmers get shiny new tech toys on credit and eventually will fold. Because. Subsidies never work. I am reminded of that quote in catcher in the rye.
  - notfromhere 7y ago
    Dairy is facing strong headwinds given that americans consume 93 less gallons of dairy per person less than they did in the 1980s. Just not enough people consuming dairy to justify such a huge industry
    - hshshshshss 7y ago
      good
    - ryannevius 7y ago
      I can't comment on per capita consumption in 1980, but this data[1] seems to suggest that Americans are actually consuming _more_ dairy products per capita than in the year 2000 – 643 pounds per year in 2017 vs 591 pounds in 2000. [1] https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/dairy-data/ https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/dairy-data/
      - jelliclesfarm 7y ago
        https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/dairy-farming-is-dying-after-40-years-im-out/2018/12/21/79cd63e4-0314-11e9-b6a9-0aa5c2fcc9e4_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/dairy-farming-is-dyin... : this is a good read from a dairy farmer who quit/retired ...it gives some perspective. From 2017: oversupply and plummeting prices https://www.marketwatch.com/story/got-milk-too-much-of-it-say-us-dairy-farmers-2017-05-21 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/got-milk-too-much-of-it-sa... ...in Ag, it’s not always a good thing to be over productive especially if there are subsidies in place. Price controls and free market throttling will always be suicidal. Not just for dairy..also true for other commodity crops.
    - daemin 7y ago
      Maybe it's because I've been playing "Surviving Mars" recently, but I can't help to think that the answer to the dairy industry is to find a new market on Mars. Realistically milk is something that won't be produced on that planet for a very long time, so exporting cheese would be big business.

tomcam 7y ago

Do you have a blog or YT channel or something where you discuss these issues more? I’d love to follow you.

leroy_masochist 7y ago
No but thank you for saying that!

dragontamer 7y ago

I'm not fully up to date on farming technology, but you bring up a good point. I think most laypeople don't realize just how complicated these machines are. Here's a lettuce transplanter: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQ1u9IwJrs8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQ1u9IwJrs8 It can transplant a lot of lettuce in a very quick amount of time, with a crew of 3 (1 driver + 2 workers on the back). You're not going to beat this plant-tape methodology with 90s era technology.

jelliclesfarm 7y ago
That plant tape technology was developed in Spain and acquired by a Salinas lettuce company. They still struggle with margins due to CA labour costs and regulations. At some point, even economies of scale will totter when things become too big. In Ag, the better you do, you lose..because quantity creates glut and farmers are at the bottom of the supply chain of cheap food. Any increase in food prices would only benefit the top. But with new tech, the farmers are bearing the burden of new technology cost without seeing an increase in revenue. This has already led to the demise of the dairy industry. Ditto with grain and commodity crops. These are also heavily subsidized. Cheap food is subsidized by tax payers and farmers get shiny new tech toys on credit and eventually will fold. Because. Subsidies never work. I am reminded of that quote in catcher in the rye.
- notfromhere 7y ago
  Dairy is facing strong headwinds given that americans consume 93 less gallons of dairy per person less than they did in the 1980s. Just not enough people consuming dairy to justify such a huge industry
  - hshshshshss 7y ago
    good
  - ryannevius 7y ago
    I can't comment on per capita consumption in 1980, but this data[1] seems to suggest that Americans are actually consuming _more_ dairy products per capita than in the year 2000 – 643 pounds per year in 2017 vs 591 pounds in 2000. [1] https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/dairy-data/ https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/dairy-data/
    - jelliclesfarm 7y ago
      https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/dairy-farming-is-dying-after-40-years-im-out/2018/12/21/79cd63e4-0314-11e9-b6a9-0aa5c2fcc9e4_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/dairy-farming-is-dyin... : this is a good read from a dairy farmer who quit/retired ...it gives some perspective. From 2017: oversupply and plummeting prices https://www.marketwatch.com/story/got-milk-too-much-of-it-say-us-dairy-farmers-2017-05-21 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/got-milk-too-much-of-it-sa... ...in Ag, it’s not always a good thing to be over productive especially if there are subsidies in place. Price controls and free market throttling will always be suicidal. Not just for dairy..also true for other commodity crops.
  - daemin 7y ago
    Maybe it's because I've been playing "Surviving Mars" recently, but I can't help to think that the answer to the dairy industry is to find a new market on Mars. Realistically milk is something that won't be produced on that planet for a very long time, so exporting cheese would be big business.